Gold Soars To A New High As World Currencies Take Stocks Higher Against The US Dollar And US Treasuries

I … Today, October 13, 2010, the longer out US Treasuries, the Zeroes, ZROZ, the 20-30 Year US Government Bonds, TLT, and Dollar, $USD, tumbled, as gold, GLD, stocks, VT, and Junk Bonds, JNK, moved strongly higher.

World stocks, ACWI, 1.2%, Europe, VGK, 1.5%, Mexico, EWW, 1.4%, Brazil, EWP, 1.8%, China, FXI, 2.4%, India, INP, 2.1%, S&P, SPY, 0.8%, Emerging Markets, EEM 1.8%, and Small Caps, SAA, 2.9%, moved higher on rising currencies: the South African Rand, SZR, 1.1%, New Zealand Dollar, BNZ, 0.8%, Canadian Dollar, FXC, 0.6%, Brazilian Real, BZF, 0.9%, Australian Dollar, FXA, 0.4% and Emerging Market Currencies, CEW,0.6%.

Wealth took flight away from US Sovereign Debt, US Banks, Mortgage Finance, Semiconductors, and Japan. It may be that the fall in bank shares today is due to unknown earnings reports as well as fright over the mortgage foreclosure imbroglio.

II … The currency sensitive, Small Cap Pure Value Shares, RZV, 1.6 %, and Small Cap Shares, SAA, 2.9%, rose, on the rise in Developed Market Currencies, DBV, 0.5%, and the Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, 06.%.

III … Emerging markets rose strongly.
Emerging Markets, EEM, 1.8%
Emerging Market Small Cap Dividend stocks, DGS, 1.5%
Emerging Market Bonds, EMB, 0.4%
Emerging Markets Metal And Mining Titans, EMT,  1.4%
Emerging Market Financials, EMFN, 1.4%
Emerging Markets Small Caps, EWX, 1.5%
Chart of EWX,EEM,EMFN,EMT

IV … Speculative assets soared.
Copper Mining, CU, 3.8%
BHP Billiton, BHP, 2.2%, jumped higher to resistance at 82.00
Nordic 30, GXF, 3.0%
India, INP, 2.1%, may have formed an evening star, it will take several days of trading to confirm.
Spain, EWP, 1.9%
Energy Service Providers, OIH,  2.1%
Industrial Metal Equities, CRBI, 2.5%
Small Cap Energy, XLES,  2.5%
Solar, TAN, 2.4%
Ireland, EIRL, 1.5%
Austria, EWO, 1.1%

V … Small Cap Stocks, SAA, rose strongly, 2.9%.
Small Cap Leaders, XGC, 3.2%

China Small Caps, HAO, 2.2%.
Korean Small Caps, SKOR, 3.3%
Canadian Small Caps, CNDA, 2.8% .
Brazil Small Caps, BRF, 2.8% .
Australian Small Caps, KROO, 1.3%  
Latin America Small Caps, LATM, 2.3%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     India Small Caps SCIF, ?%
Small Cap Consumer Discretionary, XLYS, 1.1%
Russell 2000, IWM, 1.5%  

Chart of XGC, ACWI, EEM

Chart of  BRF, LATM, KROO, HAO, SCIF CNDA, SKOR, IWM, XLYS

VI … Industrials rose strongly
China Industrials, CHII, 3.8%
Industrial Metal Equities, CRBI, 2.5%
Industrials, XLI, 1.6%
Dow Jones Industrials, DIA ,0.7%

Chart of CHII, XLI, DIA

VII. … Singapore, EWS, Hong Kong, EWH, and the Leading Frontier Market, FRN, countries rose strongly.
Peru, EPU, 2.9%
Thailand, THD, 1.6%
Turkey, TUR, 0.9%
Malaysia, EWM, 1.0%

VIII  …. Non agricultural commodities rose; agricultural commodities fell only slightly.
Gold, GLD, 1.6%; junior gold mining stocks, GDXJ, 3.3%
Silver, SLV, 2.8%
Oil, UCO, 2.2%
Oil, USO, 1.4%
Tin, JJT, 1.7%
Timber, CUT, 1.0%
Agricultural Commodities, DBA, -0.6%
Agricultural Commodities, RJA, -0.3%
Food Commodities, FUD, -0.7%

IX. Laggards of the day included
Japan, EWJ, +0.2%
Retail, RTH, -0.1%; Manifested a bearish harami candlestick; Macy’s, M, fell 2.5% lower manifesting a bearish engulfing candlestick. Children’s Place, PLCE, fell 3.5% and manifested a bearish candlestick at the top of an ascending wedge.
Banks, KBE, -0.7%
Semiconductors, SMH, -1.4%
Intel, INTC, -2.7%; Manifested a massive bearish engulfing candlestick.
Mortgage Finance, KME, -2.2%

X …. Bonds, BND, rose 0.16%; Bonds are trading below their October 7, 2010 high at 82.93.
Emerging Market Bonds, EMB, 0.48%
Junk Bonds, JNK, +0.50%. The strong rise in junk bonds to 40.39 suggests that peak liquidity may have been achieved today on the rise of the emerging currencies, CEW, to 23.32 and major currencies, DBV to 23.46
15 + Year TIPS, LTPZ, +0.92%
TIPS, TIP, +0.60%
Corporate Bonds, LQD, -0.05%
Longer Maturity Corporate Bonds, BLV, -0.18%   

XI.  The US Dollar and the longer out US Treasuries fell strongly.

The US Dollar, $USD, -0.36% … US Dollar Zig-Zag chart shows a bottom may be forming in the US Dollar, $USD.

Inverse USD/JPY ETF, JYN, 72.18

Zeroes, ZROZ, -1.37%. Fell massively from a head and shoulders pattern.
20-30 Year US Government Debt, TLT, -0.18%; These also fell from a supportinve H & S pattern.
Intermediate US Treasuries, IEF, unchanged
Mortgage Backed Bond, MBB, +0.05%
Short Term US Treasuries, SHY, +0.01%
Municipal Bonds, MUB, manifested the lollipop hanging man candlestick and fell lower.  

The interest Rate on the US 30 Year Government Bond, $TYX, jumped higher in its second day of breakout. The interest rate on the US Ten Year Note, $TNX, broke out.

The 30:10 US Sovereign Debt Yield Curve, $TYX:$TNX, steepened parabolically to manifest a hammer candlestick at the top of its ascending wedge.

XII … Real estate stocks and ETTs, all appear topped out:  BLK BPOSTDPSR .. FIO,

XIII …  Peak Wealth may have been achieved today. Twelve reasons why a stock market and a bond market turn lower is imminent:
1) Monies are flowing into speculative assets, like Junk Bonds, JNK, Chinese Real Estate, TAO, Nanotechnology, PXN, Television Broadcasting, LCAPA, and commodities, DBC.
2) The 30-10 US Sovereign yield curve continues to resist flattening.
3) The Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, $TNX, broke out.                                                                                                             4) The interest Rate on the US 30 Year Government Bond, $TYX, jumped higher in its second day of breakout.
5) The Euro, FXE, has hit resistance and appears stalled out from rising higher, due to the strength of the Yen, FXY. A stagnant EUR/JPY, seen in the chart of FXE:FXY, suggests that the currency traders are now going to go short the euro yen carry trade, which will cause a massive world wide stock sell off.    
6) the high level of Yen, FXY, above 120, is not conducive with a rising stock market.     
7) the small caps, SAA, rose vigorously today; this is something that occurs immediately to stock market turns lower.
8) Exxon Mobil, XOM, reached a pivot point at 65.
9) Tax Managed Buy Write Opportunities, ETW, fell lower today; suggesting that market insiders are aware that returns can no longer be achieved by invested long.
10) Airlines, FAA, blasting awesomely higher.
11) The level of the Russell 2000, IWM, relative to banks, KBE, IWM:KBE, is at a ten month high.
12) The ratio of the Small Cap Value shares, RZV, relative to Small Cap Growth shares, RZV, RZV:RZG, has turned down, suggesting that currencies are going to fall lower causing disinvestment from stocks.

XIV … Keywords: yield curve, market top, speculation,

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: