Financial Market Report for the Week Ending August 30, 2013
1) … News reports reveal groundwork was laid for a war in Syria on Saturday August, 24, 2013. Donn Abu-Nasr, Roger Runningen & Silla Brush of Bloomberg report UK’s William Hague, Germany’s Steffen Seibert, and France’s Laurent Fabius say Syria used chemical arms as UN probes allegations. The U.K.’s Hague and Turkey’s Davutoglu signaled that action may be taken even without the backing of the UN Security Council. “Is it possible to respond without complete agreement on the security council? I would argue yes it is,” Hague said. “Other countries including France are very clear that we can’t allow the idea that chemical weapons in the 21st century can can be used with impunity. US intelligence officials and international partners have concluded that chemicals were used, based on the reported number of victims, reported symptoms of those who were killed or injured in the Aug. 21 attacks, witness accounts and other facts gathered, according to (a emailed) US statement. “There is very little doubt at this point that a chemical weapon was used by the Syrian regime against civilians in this incident,” according to the official’s statement. The statement was released on condition of anonymity because the person wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.
Bloomberg reports Syria is headed for Western Strike, Russia says. The U.S. and its allies are on a “slippery slope” to military intervention in Syria that will have “extremely dangerous” consequences for the region, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Any military intervention without UN Security Council approval would be “a gross violation of international law,” Lavrov told reporters in Moscow today. He ruled out a Russian military response.
Robert Wenzel of Economic Policy Journal writes Alert: Unusual White House economic meeting. Robert Willmann, Jr. emails, This past Monday, 19 August, 2013, president Obama had a closed-door meeting with the heads of the Federal Reserve Bank, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the National Credit Union Administration, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Comptroller of the Currency. As Mark Knoller, tweets, and as the White House posts.
This curious meeting, a rarity with the chiefs of all the financial agencies plus the Not-Federal Reserve Bank, means that either there is significant deterioration of the financial “system” and the economy, or he wanted to advise them of possible military escalation in Syria and the Middle East and ask them about the economic impact of such military action, or both. If Obama asked them if military action against Syria would trash the economy, they certainly answered “no”, because two days later came the so-called “gas attack”, to further lay the groundwork for military escalation.
1A … A short history is helpful to understand the developing war in Syria.
1) … Wikipedia communicates that the Syrian Military Intelligence Directorate is the political authority governing Syria. It is controlled by Syrian President Assad, who is of the Alawite Muslin faith.
2) … Wikipedia provides details on Shia Sunni relations. According to some reports, as of mid-2013, the Syrian civil war has become “overtly sectarian” with the “sectarian lines fall most sharply” between Alawites and Sunnis. With the involvement of Lebanese Shia paramilitary group Hezbollah the fighting in Syria has reignited “long-simmering tensions between Sunnis and Shi’ites” spilling over into Lebanon and Iraq.
Syria is approximately three quarters Sunni, but its government is predominately Alawi, a Shia sect that makes up less than 15% of the population. Under Assad, Alawi dominated the Baath Arab Socialist Party, a secular Arab nationalist party which has ruled Syria under a state of emergency since 1963 and has not tolerated any opposition. Alawi are often considered a form of Shia Islam, that differs somewhat from the larger Twelver Shia sect.
A very serious 20th century conflict in Syria with sectarian religious overtones was that between the Alawi-dominated Assad regime and the Islamist Sunni Muslim Brotherhood, culminating with the 1982 Hama massacre. An estimated 10,000 to 40,000 Syrians, mostly civilians, were killed by Syrian military in the city. During the uprising, the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood attacked military cadets at an artillery school in Aleppo, performed car bomb attacks in Damascus, as well as bomb attacks against the government and its officials, including Assad himself, and had killed several hundred.
The 2011-2012 Syrian uprising has reawakened the sectarian tensions in Syria, gradually becoming a full-blown sectarian strife between the Alawi dominated Army and government vs. Sunni rebels and former members of the regular Syrian Army.
3) … The Guardian reports Iran and Hezbollah have built 50,000-strong force to help Syrian regimen. Major General Aviv Kochavi, the director of military intelligence in the Israel defence forces (IDF), said Iran intended to double the size of this Syrian “people’s army”, which he claimed was being trained by Hezbollah fighters and funded by Tehran, to bolster a depleted and demoralised Syrian army. Kochavi, also said Assad’s troops had readied chemical weapons but so far had not been given the order for them to be used.
Israel opposes the western arming of Syrian rebels because of its fears that the weapons will end up in the hands of such groups. Defence officials say they are focused on Assad’s sizeable arsenal of chemical weapons and missiles and they are prepared to carry out more air strikes to stop such arms being transferred to Hezbollah, even at the risk of what a senior official predicted would be an ugly new war in Lebanon.
Israel has warned the UK and France against arming Syrian rebels, arguing there will be no guarantees that sophisticated weapons such as portable anti-aircraft missiles will not ultimately find their way to al-Qaida affiliates and other extremist groups, and be turned against Israel. Israel’s immediate focus is on preventing any of Assad’s stockpile of chemical weapons and anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles reaching Lebanon.
4) … The Independent reports Saudi Prince with close ties to US at the heart of the push for war.
1B) … The Bible is clear that Syria’s capital Damascus will be utterly, absolutely, and totally destroyed, that is obliterated, per Isaiah 17. Whether this is done by the USA, UK, the EU, or Israel, the Bible does not specify, but it will happen. It was ordained in eternity past that the Syrian War of Isaiah 17:1-11 will precede the Ezekiel 38-39 War, where war against Iran will be initiated. Robert Fisk relates in Common Dreams Iran, Not Syria, Is the West’s Real Target.
This just as it was ordained that the UK become a global power as a multitude of nations, and the US follow it to be the leading world power, as promised to Abraham in Genesis 12:2, Genesis 17:4-6, and Genesis 48:16.
Robert Phillips, writes of the Liberalism’s Anglo American Empire foretold in Bible prophecy in article, Ephraim and Manasseh, To fully appreciate the significance of the blessing of Joseph’s two sons, we need to understand some background with regard to both history and prophecy in relation to Israel. The promises to the tribes of Israel were specifically reserved for the “last days”, or “Christian era”, Genesis 49:1, Hebrews 1:1,2. Britain’s Ephraim-Mandate is evident in that it was Britain that colonised and built the world’s greatest Empire, and established its Commonwealth of Nations. It was Britain that led the way in Industrial Revolution. Britain was in the forefront of many major technological and engineering developments, including building the first computer. In fact, there have sadly been attempts to re-write history, in order to play-down or ignore the significant role played by Britain, in major technological, scientific and military achievements. For a number of years America has been enjoying Manasseh’s portion of the birthright. Some believe that, although Jacob appointed his younger brother Ephraim as Israel’s firstborn, this did not prejudice Manasseh’s inheritance as Joseph’s firstborn. In other words, whilst Ephraim would inherit the primary Israel birthright, territorial blessing and monarchy, Manasseh would receive the double-portion of Joseph’s material legacy of wealth and power. As long as Britain remained predominant, America could never enjoy Joseph’s prominence of wealth and power. This may explain why Britain had to diminish, for a time, so America could receive Manasseh’s inheritance, becoming, in his season, prevalent in material blessings.
I continue, and just as it was ordained that out of these two iron pillars, or better said, two iron legs of hegemonic power, that a ten toed kingdom of regional governance, will rule mankind, as foretold in the Statue of Empires prophecy in Daniel 2:25-45.
1C) … Bible prophecy of Revelation 13:1-4 foretells that out of waves of Mediterranean Sea nation state chaos, beginning in May 2010 with Greek Bailout I, God is bringing forth a Beast regime, to occupy in all of mankind’s seven heads, that is in each of humanity’s seven institutions; and to rule in every one of the world’s ten horns, that is in each of the globe’s ten regional zones.
The seven institutions are 1) Education, 2) Banking, Finance, Commerce and Trade, 3) Body Politic, 4) Military, 5) Religion, 6) Media, 7) Science and Technology. Each of these seven institutions will increasingly be integrated with each other, in totalitarian collectivist regional governance, in each of the world’s ten regions. A growing intertwining of institutions is seen in today’s news analysis. Via a workgroup, the institution of US Banking and Financial Trading, is being fully integrated with the institution of US Body Politic, and the institution of the US Military, in what will eventually be a North American Continental Government, that is a North American Union. Leaders from each of the seven institutions will increasingly be working in statist public private partnerships to oversee the factors of production to manage regional commerce and trade, for regional security, stability and sustainability.
While nannycrats rule in the age of Authoritarianism, the elect rule in the age of the Kingdom of God, as foretold in bible prophecy, as the saints are seen proclaiming “and have made us kings and priests to our God; and we shall reign on the earth”, Revelation 5:9-10.
2) … Stocks drop as UniCredit falls on Italy wrangling and as Yen rises on plans for war develop.
On Monday, August 26, 2013, Volatility, VXZ. rose entering an Elliott Wave 3 Up. The chart of the EUR/JPY shows a slight trade lower to 131.61 with Eurozone Stocks, EZU, trading lower, as Italy, EWI, Spain, EWP, and the European Financials, EUFN, traded lower, on a lower Euro, FXE, and a higher Yen, FXY. Bloomberg reports Europe stocks drop as UniCredit falls on Italy wrangling. And Zero Hege repaorts Italian bonds plunge to worst ay In 9 weeks. Inverse Volatiliy, XIV, Food and Beverage, PBJ, Consumer Staples, KXI, led by Meat Proucts, PPC,SN, HRL, Regional Banks, KRE, Solar Energy, TAN, and Dow Telecom, IST, traded lower. The BRICS, EEB, traded lower, on lower Russia, RSX, India, INP, Brazil, EWZ, and China Industrials, CHII. Pharmaceuticals, PJP, and Biotechnology, IBB, traded higher. Briefing.com reported light trading volume has persisted throughout the day, which, in turn, has made for a very quiet trading day. Similar to the S&P, the Treasury market is little changed with the benchmark 10-yr yield off one basis point at 2.81.
On Tuesday, August 27, 2013, In overnight trading, Reuters reports Geopolitical jitters unsettle Asia stocks; yen rises. Asian stocks fell on Tuesday and the Turkish lira hit a record low after the United States signaled possible military action against the Syrian government over a suspected chemical weapons attack last week. Dealers said there was no panic selling though, just truncated trading as investors waited nervously to see how the situation unfolds.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, in the most forceful reaction yet to the August 21 gas attack outside Damascus, said President Barack Obama “believes there must be accountability for those who would use the world’s most heinous weapons against the world’s most vulnerable people.”
Kerry said Obama was consulting with allies before he decides on how to respond. His comments saw U.S. stocks end 0.4 percent lower in light volumes on Monday. The risk of supply disruption lifted Brent crude above $111 a barrel to five-month highs. It last traded up 0.3 percent at $111.06 a barrel. U.S. crude gained 0.3 percent to $106.19
In Asia, the Indian rupee and the Malaysian ringgit were notable movers. The rupee hit a record low at 65.71 per dollar, while the ringgit reached a three-year low around 3.3300 per dollar. “It’s has been a tough time for many emerging market currencies over recent weeks,” said Greg Gibbs, currency strategist at RBS.
And Bloomberg reports Yen rises on haven demand amid emerging market rout. The yen climbed against all of its 16 major counterparts as a selloff in emerging markets boosted demand for haven assets. Asian shares fell amid a freefall in the currencies of India and Indonesia, and as tensions in Syria escalated.
Aggregate Credit, AGG, bounced higher as the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, receded to 2.72%. Gary of Between the Hedges post the Bloomberg report Bond binge expanding leverage toward crisis peak. Debt levels have increase faster than cash flow for six straight quarters, boosting the obligations of investment-grade companies in the second quarter to 2.09 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to JPMorgan Chase. That’s up from 2.07 times in the first three months of 2013 and compares with 2.13 in the third quarter of 2009, when it peaked after the deepest recession since the Great Depression
On Tuesday August 27, 2013, the US planning a war in Syria, terminated Nation Investment, EFA, and Small Cap Nation Investment, IFSM, commenced a global financial system, IXG, meltdown. During the day, Volatility, VXZ, rose strongly as the Yen, FXY, blasted higher, as Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, traded lower, causing Nation Investment, EFA, and Small Cap Nation Investment, IFSM, and Global Banks, IXG, to trade parabolically lower. The Too Big To Fail Banks, RWW, Regional Banks, KRE, Nasdaq Community Banks, QABA, Emerging Market Financials, EMFN, European Financials, EUFN, and Foreign Regional Banks, such as BPOP, a liberalism currency carry trade leader, fell vertically lower.
With the Indian Rupe, ICN, crashing lower, India, INP, and its banks, HDB, and IBN, traded strongly lower, inducing other BRICS, EEB, specifically China, YAO, Russian, RSX, and Brazil, EWZ, lower. Emerging Markets, EEM, trading lower included Chile, ECH, Indonesia, IDX, Philippines, EPHE, Turkey, TUR Thailand, THD. Countries trading lower included Argentina, ARGT, led by its banks, BMA, BBVA, BCA, BFR, GGAL, the Great Britain, EWU, led by its banks LYG, RBS, BCS, Mexico, EWW, led by its bank BSMX, Switzerland, EWL, led by its banks UBS and CS, and Israel, EIS.
Benson writes of debt deflation, that is treasury debt and currency devaluation, causing deleveraging and derisking out of stocks, in article ASEAN Meltdown. Weiyi Lim, Anuchit Nguyen and Ian Sayson of Bloomberg add The MSCI Southeast Asia Index has dropped 11% this month and is down 21% from this year’s peak on May 8 (this was when the Interest Rate on the 10 Year US Government Note, ^TNX, started to rise sharply
Reuters asks The rupee is where? Currency collapse confounds India Inc. Indian companies such as Whirlpool of India Ltd say they can’t plan more than a couple of months out as a fast-falling rupee currency drives up the cost of imports, forcing them to raise prices even as consumer spending crumbles.
Richard Frost and Santanu Chakraborty of Bloomberg report Oil and gold prices have never been so high for Indian buyers as they are now, hampering government efforts to contain inflation and reduce the nation’s record current-account deficit. Oil has jumped 31% this quarter to the highest since at least 1988 in local currency terms, while the precious metal surged 3%. India imports almost 80% of its energy needs and is the world’s biggest buyer of gold. The rupee has tumbled 20% versus the dollar this year, heading for the worst annual loss since a balance of payments crisis in 1991 forced the nation to seek loans from the International Monetary Fund. Consumer prices in Asia’s third- largest economy rose 9.64% in July. ‘The last thing India needs is higher oil prices,’ Kelvin Tay, the chief investment officer for the southern Asia-Pacific region at UBS AG’s wealth management.
The chart of the EUR/JPY showed a strong fall lower to 129.98, with the Eurozone, EZU, and European Financials, EUFN, led by Greece’s NBG, Ireland’s IRE, Spain’s SAN, Germany’s DB, trading strongly lower, as Greece, GREK, Ireland, EIRL, Spain, EWP, Italy, EWI, Netherlands, EWN, France, EWQ, and Germany, EWG, EWGS, traded lower, inducing Norway, NORW, Sweden, EWD, and Switzerland, EWL, lower. Eurozone stocks, EZU, trading lower included, Ireland’s STX, IR, WCRX, ICLR, COV, CRH, JHX, Netherland’s, ING, PHG, ASML, LYB, ST, CNH, YNDX, AER, QGEN, NXPI, TRNX, and France’s, ALU, VE. Eurozone Debt, EU, manifested bearish engulfing, portending a fall lower.
Republic Airways, RJET, led Regional Airlines, seen in this Finviz Screener, lower. And United Airlines, UAL, led Major Airlines, seen in this Finviz Screener lower. And Genworth, GNW, led life insurance companies, seen in this Finviz Screener, lower.
Sectors trading strongly, lower included 200% Inverse Volatility, XIV, Solar Energy, TAN, Small Cap Industrials, PSCI, Transportation, XTN, Automobiles, CARZ, Biotechnology, IBB, and Small Cap Pure Value, RZV. Yield bearing sectors trading lower included Water Utilities, PHO, Global Utilities, DBU, Leveraged Buyouts, PSP, and Shipping, SEA.
The National Bank of Greece, NBG, fell 9.5% lower, leading Global Financials, IXG, lower. Regional Banks, KRE, Nasdaq Community Banks, QABA, the Too Big To Fail Banks, RWW, Investment Bankers, KCE, Stockbrokers, IAI, European Financials, EUFN, Chinese Financials, CHIX, and Emerging Market Financials, EMFN, all traded lower. Bloomberg reports US Bank legal bills and penalities exceed $100 Billion. Silver Miners, SIL, and Gold Miners, GDX, led Metal Manufacturing, XME, Uranium Miners, URA, Industrial Metal Miners, PICK, Coal Miners, KOL, Copper Miners, COPX, and Rare Earth Miners, REMX, lower.
The WSJ reports Debt Drags on China’s Growth. Interest costs leave companies with less cash to invest; the Case of Shougang Group. As worries over China’s debt problem mount, the burden of paying off those loans could be the trigger that tips runaway credit into slower economic growth and financial stress. Few areas illustrate the problems better than the old industrial sector, where state-owned steel plants and cement kilns continue to borrow and expand even as overcapacity grows. With debts high and profits low, some companies, such as state-owned steel giant Shougang Group, are using new loans to repay old ones, according to Dagong Global Credit Rating Co.
Ambrose Evans Pritchard reports Saudis offer Russia secret oil deal if it drops Syria. Saudi Arabia has secretly offered Russia a sweeping deal to control the global oil market and safeguard Russia’s gas contracts, if the Kremlin backs away from the Assad regime in Syria.
Jim Lobe writes in Antiwar of today’s false flag. Neocon hawks take flight over Syria. It is expected that Britain and France and possibly Turkey will also take part in operations under a NATO mandate and with the support of the Arab League which, meeting in Cairo Tuesday, blamed Syria for the attack and called for its perpetrators to be brought to justice.
Despite the fact that U.N. inspectors, who on Monday visited the site of the alleged attack outside Damascus and took blood and tissue samples from some victims, have not yet submitted their findings, administration officials said they had concluded that the attack did take place and that government forces were responsible. At the White House Tuesday, spokesman Jay Carney said the administration will release a report detailing the basis for its conclusions later this week and that Obama was currently considering various options prepared by the Pentagon, although he also insisted that any action taken by the United States will not be intended to achieve “regime change” in Damascus.
That assurance will no doubt frustrate neo-conservatives, many of whom have long held the Assad dynasty in their sights and who had hoped that the 2003 invasion of Iraq – which they promoted through organizations like PNAC, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), and the Foundation for Defense of Democracy (FDD) – would lay the foundations for Assad’s ouster, too. Indeed, a number of neo-conservatives, including signatories of the FPI letter, are insisting that US action aim to end Assad’s regime. One, Eliot Cohen, argued in a Washington Post op-ed Monday that “a bout of therapeutic bombing is an even more feckless course of action than a principled refusal to act altogether,” a point echoed on the Wall Street Journal‘s editorial page – a favorite neo-conservative forum – Tuesday. Another signatory, Reuel Marc Gerecht, who promoted the Iraq war at AEI and is now based at FDD, called for a “devastating” attack targeting “elite military units, aircraft, armor and artillery; all weapons-depots; the myriad organizations of the secret police; the ruling elite’s residences; and other critical Alawite infrastructure” in a New York Times op-ed Tuesday.
Founded by two prominent neo-conservatives in 1997, Bill Kristol and Robert Kagan, PNAC published a series of letters and manifestos that helped shape the foreign policy trajectory, especially regarding the Middle East, of Bush’s first term. Among its charter members are eight men who held key posts under Bush, including Cheney; his chief of staff, I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby; Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld; his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz; Abrams and the Pentagon’s foreign policy chief, Peter Rodman.
In 1998, PNAC published letters favoring legislation adopting “regime change” as official US policy toward Iraq that was eventually signed into law by then-President Bill Clinton. Nine days after 9/11, it published another letter to Bush signed by 41 policy analysts – virtually all neo-conservatives – that laid out an ambitious agenda for his “global war on terror”. It insisted that failure to remove Iraq’s Saddam Hussein from power “will constitute an early and perhaps decisive surrender in the war on international terrorism.” It also urged that Bush “should consider appropriate measures of retaliation” against Iran and Syria if they refused to comply with demands that they cease support for Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
PNAC faded into oblivion by the beginning of Bush’s second term as the situation in Iraq deteriorated and neo-conservatives lost influence. In early 2009, however, Kagan and Kristol founded FPI and were joined as directors there by Edelman and Dan Senor, a former spokesman for the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) in Iraq. In January 2011, FPI published a letter signed by 40 policy analysts, including more than a dozen former Bush administration officials, calling on Obama to press NATO to establish a no-fly zone over Libya and the country’s naval vessels. By the following summer, it joined with FDD in calling for tough economic sanctions against Syria and the creation of no-fly or no-go zones in Syrian territory to protect civilians, and in December 2011, it released a letter signed by 58 individuals – most of whom also signed Tuesday’s letter – calling for military aid to opposition forces “whose political goals accord with US national security interests”.
Elain Meinel Supkis comments on The Guardian article White House: Syria action ‘not about regime change’. Sheesh. ALL our wars are about ‘regime change’ and the brutal suppression of a feeble attempt at self government in Egypt was a coup and regime change sponsored by the Saudi Royals who hate democracy with a passion and are extremely brutal rulers.
Meanwhile, the Arab League Rejects Attack Against Syria and we have this warning: Strike on Syria Would Cause One on Israel, Iran Declares. All are allegations and are remarkably similar to the allegations of the Bush regime. And this is due to the same cast of criminal characters in the State Department and Pentagon writing this junk, the ‘neocons’. They are Zionists who also work with the Saudis. After 9/11, all jets were grounded in the US except…for a fleet of jets that picked up Saudis and flew them all out so they couldn’t be questioned by the FBI!
9/11 was a staged event to drive us into wars with Muslims. The Saudis were very thick in this matter as was Mossad and the CIA, DARPA and others. The Saudis were the only ones allowed to travel on 9/12. They were SECRETLY flown out while citizens were basically locked out of transportation because exactly zero citizens were terrorists or working with terrorists whereas a huge number of Saudis were exactly that. And they got to flee with State Department assistance and our media giants barely made a murmur and didn’t investigate this.
Zero Hedge reports What a US strike on Syria would look like Via Stratfor, In the event of a punitive strike or a limited operation to reduce Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s chemical weapons delivery capability — for instance, by targeting key command and control facilities, main air bases and known artillery sites — the United States already has enough forces positioned to commence operations.
Considering that al Assad’s forces have a number of ways to deliver chemical weapons, ranging from air power to basic tube and rocket artillery, an operation that seeks to degrade the regime’s ability to launch chemical weapons would necessarily be far wider in scope and scale. This means tactical aviation would have to play a key role in such a campaign, which in turn would entail the deployment of significant enabler aircraft such as aerial refueling tankers and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets.
Given the threat from Syrian air defenses to manned tactical aircraft flying over Syria, considerably more ships equipped with cruise missiles would be needed for the inevitable suppression of an enemy air defense campaign, and aircraft carriers would be needed to bolster the tactical aviation assets available for the operation.
The United States has not yet begun to deploy the forces needed for this level of intervention, but significant combat power is not far off. Two U.S. supercarriers and their escorts in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations are only a few days away, and the U.S. Air Force can rapidly surge squadrons into the theater if necessary, especially if air bases in Turkey, Greece, Jordan and Cyprus are available.
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Zero Hedge reports Despite austerity Greek debt is rising at its fastest rate since March 2010.
Bloomberg reports Fiat said to extend layoffs for 5,300 Turin factory workers.
The WSJ reports Zero Worship: Credit card firms compete with no-interest transfers. Hunt for Customers Pushes Banks to Revive Terms That Were the Rage in the 1990s. U.S. credit-card companies, hungry for new customers as many Americans continue to shun debt, are pumping up a popular promotion that can be risky for both lenders and consumers. Financial companies that issue plastic are flooding mailboxes and email accounts with offers that allow new customers to transfer their existing credit-card balances from other institutions without paying interest for as long as two years.
On Wednesday August 28, 2013, Volatility, VXZ, subsided. Global Design Build, FLM, traded lower. Energy sectors, OIH, IEZ, PSCE, XOP traded higher on a higher price of Oil, USO.
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On Thursday August 29, 2013 Volatility VXZ, rose, as Reters reports Dollar rallies broadly as Syria fears spur bid for safety. The Swiss Franc, FXF, and the Swedish Krona, FXS, traded strongly lower, inducing Switzeland, EWL, strongly lower. Sectors trading lower included, Energy Services, IEZ, OIH, and Steel, SLX.
Sectors rising in short sell covering included TAN, RZV, IBB, PKB, PSP, FDN, PJP, and KCE. Yield bearing sectors rising in short sell covering included IST. Ultra Junk Bonds, UJB, and Junk Bonds, JNK, rose in short selling covering as well. South Korea, EWY, with its banks, WF, SHG, KB, Semiconductor Manufacturer, MX, Wireless Telecom, SKM, and Electornics Manuacturer, LPL, rose in short sell covering. Gary of Between the Hedges relates Bloomberg reports Record $100 billion debt due as sales plunge 44%. Corporate bond sales in South Korea are falling to a six-year low just as companies face a record debt bill and credit-rating downgrades raise borrowing costs. Companies from SK Telecom, the country’s largest mobile phone operator, to POSCO, Asia’s fourth-biggest steelmaker, have almost $100 billion of won-denominated bonds and loans due before March 31, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Hanwha Investment Securities Co. says the “maturity wall” is hitting records in both 2013 and 2014. Local-currency note sales plunged 44% this year to $18.6 billion. South Korea industries are paying for a 57% jump in borrowing after the 2008 financial crisis when the government ensured easy credit to help create jobs. Robert Fisk writes in Common Dreams Obama set to aid al-Qaeda in Syria. And Jason Ditz writes US ready to go it alone against Syria; the coalition of the Willing may just mean France. The Cable reports US Doesn’t Know Who Ordered Chemical Strike Jason Ditz of reports Assad to blame for chemic attack even if he did’t do it, US says; and reports Three other chemical attacks by rebels in same area.
On Friday August 30, 2013, On Friday August 30, 2013, Volatility, XVZ, entered an Elliott Wave 3 Up, as Eurozone Financials, EUFN, such as NBG, SAN, led Eurozone Stocks, EZU, such as ENL, ALU, SI, CNH, NOK, SNY, NVO, QGEN, MT, TS, LUX, BUD, CGG, DEG, AEG, ING, and Nation Investment, EFA, and Small Cap Nation Investment, IFSM, such as Spain, EWP, Germany, EWG, Italy, EWI, Ireland, EIRL, Greece, GREK, Netherlands, EWN, Norway, NORW, Sweden, EWD, and Switzerland, EWL, lower, inducing the currency carry trade, EURJPY, to close the week 2% lower at 129.75. The Nikkei, NKY, traded lower, as its banks, SMFG, MFG, and MTU, traded lower. Amongst sectors, Inverse Volatility, XIV, Homebuilding, ITB, Design Build, FLM, Industrial Miners, PICK, Uranium Miners, URA, Automobiles, CARZ, Retail, XRT, Biotechnology, IBB, Pharmaceuticals, PJP, Steel, SLX, Networking, IGN, and also Investment Bankers, KCE, Stockbrokers, IAI, Regional Banks, IRE, and Asset Managers, such as Blackrock, BLK, traded lower.
Financial market trading summary for the week ending August 30, 2013. This week the chart of the S&P 500, $SPX, shows a 1.8% decline. The Eurozone, EZU, -5.2, Nikkei, NKY,2.7, Russell 2000, IWM, 2.7, and Asia Excluding Japan, EPP, 1.5.
The $US Dollar, $USD, rose 0.9% to close at 82.10, at the edge of a massive head and shoulders pattern going back to March 2013. The Yen, FXY, traded +0.5% higher; but the Swedish Krona, FXS, -2.0, the Brazilian Real, BZF, -1.9, the Australian Dollar, -FXA 1.4, the Euro, FXE -1.2, the Swiss Franc, FXF, -1.0, and the British Pound Sterling, FXB, -0.5.
Sectors and countries traded lower this week reflect the failure of banking and nation investment.
Mining and Metal Manufacturing, PICK -5.3, XME 4.5, SLX 4.4, URA 3.4, KOL, 3.3
Gold and Silver Mining, SSRI, -11.6, SIL 5.3, SILJ, 3.2, EGO, 7.7, GDX 6.6, GDXJ, 6.1
Sectors from 30 credit and currency trade leveraged sectors seen in this Finviz Screener trading lower included XIV -13.9, EUFN 5.9, FLM 4.4, TAN 4.3, GNW 3.9, RZV 3.8, CARZ 3.7, XTN 3.5, PSCI 3.5, IGN 3.3, FXR 3.2, RWW 3.1, SPHB 3.0, PBJ 2.9, IAI 2.8, PPA 2.7, PSP 2.4, XRT 1.3, and SMH 1.2.
Of note, the strong sell of the Eurozone Financials, EUFN, drove, European Nations, Germany, EWG, Spain, EWP, Netherlands, EWN, Italy, EWI, Greece, GREK, and Ireland, EIRL, lower, driving down the value of Eurozone Treasury Debt, EU, as is seen their combined ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart.
Doug Noland reports The vice grip the failure of credit and money on the rise of the Interest Rate on the Ten Year US Government Note beginning in May 2013. India’s central bank implemented a currency swap arrangement with the country’s major energy companies, in a plan that would provide dollar liquidity to finance the rapidly escalating cost of energy imports. Sinking currencies coupled with surging crude prices ensures that already rising inflationary pressures will intensify. This is especially an issue for India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and Russia. And rising inflation and resulting bond market losses will only work to exacerbate “hot money” and investment outflows. Weak markets, robust “hot money” outflows, rising inflation and higher policy rates all point to a consequential tightening of EM financial conditions.
Onur Ant of Bloomberg reports Turkey’s trade deficit grew more than expected in July as exports to the Middle East sank and imports of consumer goods surged. The $9.81 billion trade deficit exceeded the average estimate of $8.77 billion. Imports grew 10% from a year earlier to $22.9 billion, compared with a 2% increase in exports. Exports to the Middle East dropped 30% to $3.1 billion from a year ago.
Doug Noland continues on relating The transition from inflationism to destructionism. When risk is being embraced and leveraged positions are being expanded, this is constructive for marketplace liquidity and a loosening of financial conditions more broadly. When, instead, risk aversion and de-leveraging are in play, market liquidity suffers and financial conditions tighten. The markets’ fixation with tapering has distracted attention away from potentially far-reaching market developments. Has a multi-decade bond Bubble about run its course? Are global central banks finally losing control of market yields? After unprecedented inflows, does the abrupt reversal of flows away from EM (and resulting selling of international reserves by EM central banks) mark a major inflection point for Treasuries and global bonds more generally?
I think I can make a decent case that over recent years the U.S. (and global) bond market succumbed to “terminal phase” excess. Fed policies ensure Trillions of Treasury, municipals, MBS and corporate debt were issued at artificially low yields (inflated prices). This great mispricing is now coming back to trouble the system. Investors are being hit with losses and a self-reinforcing re-pricing dynamic is seeing flows begin to exit the sector. This reversal of flows coupled with EM central bank selling has significantly altered the risk profile of maintaining leveraged speculative positions in long-term fixed income instruments.
Fed QE notwithstanding, I believe the market backdrop today implies an important tightening of financial conditions going forward.
If financial conditions are indeed tightening globally, I would expect the typical “periphery to core” dynamic to begin to jump from EM to the more fragile peripheral developed markets. Europe and the euro initially benefited from the flight out of EM, although this week’s market performance was noteworthy. The euro dropped 1.2% (1.75% vs. the yen), its worst performance in weeks. Germany’s DAX index was hit for 3.7%, France fell 3.3%, Spain sank 4.6% and Italian stocks dropped 3.8%. Perhaps indicating hedge fund de-risking/de-leveraging, European sovereign bond yield spreads (to bunds) widened this week. German bunds widened 8 bps verses French yields to a one-month high 61 bps. Bund to Italian and Spanish bond spreads widened a notable 15 and 16 bps. And at the troubled Eurozone periphery, Portugal saw its 10-yr yields jump 16 bps to 6.59% and Greece yields rose 24 bps to 10.02%
3) … The World has passed from liberalism to authoritarianism on the fast rise in the Interest Rate On The US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, to 2.78%, as the US announced plans for a war in Syria. Liberalism was fathered by Milton Friedman, who laid the bedrock of Free To Choose economy, with proposing floating currencies, and an abandonment of the gold standard, which featured the development of a Leveraged Speculative Investment Community, where The Too Big To Fail Banks, RWW, Investment Bankers, KCE, and the Asset Managers, such as Blackrock, BLK, seen in this Finviz Screener, coined Liberalism Stock Wealth, VT, with stocks of all kinds such as Life Insurance Company, GNW, Retailer, PSUN, ETFs of all kinds such Small Cap Pure Value Stocks, RZV, and Mutual Funds, such as VICEX.
My Budget 360 writes An increasingly large part of our economic growth is coming from massive leverage. In the last 10 years, GDP has gone up $5.2 trillion however, the total credit market has gone up by $24.5 trillion. This is why the market sits fixated on the Fed’s next move regarding interest rates even though in context, rates are already tantalizingly low. The FIRE economy is driving a large portion of corporate profits yet most Americans are left in the cold winds of austerity.
Under the sovereignty of democracy, Crony Capitalism Militarism, European Socialism, and Greek Socialism Clientelism, flourished as the Speculative Leverage Investment Community, IXG, helped give seigniorage, that is moneyness, to Nation Investment, EFA, and Small Cap Nation Investment, IFSM, Global Industrial Production, FXR, all of which soared in value based schemes of credit and carry trade investing, such as Dollarization, POMO, and the EURJPY.
Jesus Christ operating at the helm of the Economy of God, Ephesians 1:10, enabled the bond vigilantes to rapidly call the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, higher to 2.01% on May 21, 2013, which terminated Emerging Market Investment, EEM, Utility Stock Investment, XLU, and Real Estate Investment, IYR, such as REM, REZ, ROOF, and FNIO. And the further fast rise of the interest rate on August 13 2013, to 2.71%, constituted an “apocalyptic event” which terminated fiat money, in particular Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies. And then the announcement of war in Syria, on Saturday, August 24, 2013, quickly drove the Interest Rate even higher to 2.78%, terminating Nation Investment, EFA, Small Cap Nation Investment, IFSM, and Global Industrial Production, FXR, as well as stimulating a Global Financial System, IXG, with The Too Big To Fail Banks, RWW, Regional Banks, KRE, Nasdaq Community Banks, QABA, Emerging Market Financials, EMFN, European Financials, EUFN, and Foreign Regional Banks, such as BPOP, a liberalism currency carry trade leader, all falling parabolically lower.
The monetary policies of the world central banks has exhausted, and have finally crossed the Rubicon of sound monetary policy, and have turned “money good” investments bad. The Global Government Bond Bubble burst in May 2013 through August 2013, as is seen in the YTD Google Finance Chart of World Treasury Bonds, BWX, together with Ten Year US Treasury Notes, TLT, Emerging Market Bonds, EMB, Nation Investment, EFA, and Emerging Market Investment, EEM.
Global Money Trends reports Bond vigilantes hold upper hand over central bankers. I comment that with higher interest rates, the sovereignty of nation states is collapsing, and the sovereignty of regional governance is rising, as foretold in bible prophecy of Revelation 13:1-4, and Daniel 2:25-45. This will eventually come to a head, as the Southern European countries, that is the PIGS, are the most debt ridden, competitiveness challenged, and democratically bankrupt nations in the world.
God’s word specifically reveals that the Beast Regime will rise to replace the Banker Regime, out of waves of Mediterranean Sea country economic and political disturbance, to occupy in all of mankind’s seven heads, that is in each of humanity’s seven institutions; and to rule in every one of the world’s ten horns, that is in each of the globe’s ten regional zones. The seven institutions being 1) Education, 2) Banking, Finance, Commerce and Trade, 3) Body Politic, 4) Military, 5) Religion, 6) Media, 7) Science and Technology; each of these seven institutions will increasingly be integrated with each other, in statist collectivist regional governance, in each of the world’s ten regions.
Authoritarianism is the new global economic and political paradigm, and it is fathered by Angela Merkel, who is engineering the debt servitude economy, under the sovereignty of regional governance and totalitarian collectivism. She is quoted by the Telegraph saying in the Telegraph, Greece should never have been allowed in the euro, and puts the blame on former chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. The debt servitude economy, is seen in the Daily Europe report that references a Tagesspiegel article which argues that Greece must be given more help, either by writing off some of its debts or with a fresh bailout, Commentator Harald Schumman argues.
With the failure of Credit, AGG, Money, DBV, CEW, and Wealth, VT, Jesus Christ, acting in dispensation, that is the oversight of all things economic and political, Ephesians 1:10, has completed the old things of liberalism and is bringing forth the new things of authoritarianism.
New dynamos are in operation. The dynamos of corporate profit and global growth were based upon investment opportunities in sovereign nation states, are powering down; now the dynamos of regional security, stability and sustainability, are powering up, reflecting responsibilities to regional authority.
A new seigniorage, that is a new moneyness, is developing. The seigniorage of investment choice is waning; and the seigniorage of diktat is gaining strength.
A new trust is emerging. Gone is trust in bankers, carry trade investing and credit, in particular Treasury debt, to increasing trust in statist nannycrats, totalitarian collectivism, public private partnerships and debt servitude, growing to the point of deification of regional governance, as is presented in Revelation 13:3-4, where the people’s trust comes to constitute worship. There be no more citizens or patriots of countries, there be only residents of a regional state, that is one of ten regional zones.
A new religion will emerge. Liberalism featured religions and philosophies based upon the worship of one’s own will, eventually a mandatory one world religion consisting of emperor worship will emerge; yet for the elect, that is God’s chosen ones, a persecuted faith in Christ
Libertarian Robert Wenzel posts on democracy’s Clientelism. De Blasio close to 40% in New York City mayoral race. With 13 days until the primary election, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio has surged ahead of the Democratic pack in the New York City mayoral race with 36 percent of likely voters, close to the 40 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. As mayor, I will spend every waking moment fighting to bring opportunity to every New Yorker, with a plan to create jobs in all five boroughs; a dramatic expansion of affordable housing and accessible health care; increas-ing taxes on the wealthy to fund early childhood and after school programs; and building police community relations that keep everyone safer. I comment that such Bill de Blasion agenda is a rear view mirror vision back into the age of liberalism, and an anachronism in the age of authoritarianism.
Ron Paul writes in Ludwig von Mises Institute Private property is the essence of liberty. I comment that the desire to develop and use private property is simply a mirage on the Authoritarian desert of the Real. Genuine freedom comes from possessing the life of Christ, Colossians 3:3-4, and experiencing Christ as the all-inclusive life experience, Colossians 3:11.
Ellen Brown writes The leveraged buyout of America and Cliff Kule blogs America is headed toward a feudalistic economy. I add that soon the banks, every one of America’s banks, the Nasdaq Community Banks, QABA, the Regional Banks, KRE, the Too Big To Fail Banks, RWW, and the US Regional Banks, such as PNC, HOMB, STI, which were largely recapitalized by QE I’s TARP in 2009, where Distressed Investments, such as those traded in Fidelity’s Mutual Fund FAGIX, were traded out for money good US Treasuries, which were placed in Excess Reserves, will effectively be nationalized and integrated into the US Federal Reserve, and be known as Government Banks, or Gov Banks, for short.
EUObserver.com reports The erosion of southern Europe. The article points out that Southern Europe, that is Latin Europe, is characterized by a lack of economic competitiveness. Italy has been ridden by contraction for nine consecutive quarters. Enrico Letta’s government has been strong enough to stay in power, but too weak to achieve major changes. The more flexible approach to austerity across the Eurozone has benefited Italy and may allow Rome’s exit from the excessive deficit procedure (EDP) in 2014. But Italy suffers from structural challenges, which translate to continued decline of industrial production and the end of the Letta government by 2014”.
The article is highly critical of austerity measures. In Portugal, the recession will continue until 2014, which means that unemployment will remain close to 20 percent. In July, the resignation of two ministers led to a new cabinet. Greater flexibility in austerity measures and rising sentiment are softening the contraction impact.
Despite the impending German elections and expected political turmoil across the southern periphery of Europe, the Eurozone is suffering a lost decade, which could have been avoided with more sensible policies.
During the past half a decade, prosperity levels, as measured by per capita incomes, have stagnated or fallen across Southern Europe. In this way, they have amplified the historical trend line.
In 1980, the prosperity levels were not that different in France, Germany, and Italy. In contrast, per capita incomes in Spain and Greece were barely half of that in France. In turn, the Portuguese were far behind most of Southern Europe – barely a fourth of French per capita income.
At the turn of the 1990s, French prosperity surpassed that of Germany, which was coping with the costs of re-unification. While the two had almost identical prosperity levels until the global recession in 2008-2009, France has trailed behind Germany thereafter. By 2018, average GDP per capita will be almost $49,000 in Germany but less than $48,000 in France”.
In the global economy, the relative share of Southern Europe is likely to halve to about 6 percent between 1980 and 2018, as measured by GDP based on purchasing-power-parity share of world. In France, it means a decline from less than 5 percent to less than 2.5 percent of the world total. In Italy, the decline has accelerated ever since the mid-1990s and is steeper. The same goes for the tiny economies of Greece and Portugal, respectively. Only in Spain, the relative decline has been somewhat slower.
The article banters against austerity, and calls for more ECB fiscal support despite it running full on. In these countries, harsh austerity regimes, coupled with inadequate short-term fiscal support and insufficient pro-growth policies, have contributed to the challenges, as evidenced by excessive debt. In 2013, it is likely to soar to 180 percent of the GDP in Greece, while hovering over 120 percent in Italy and Portugal. In Spain, it is currently 85 percent but will soar to more than 110 percent by 2018 – thanks to strict austerity and weak growth.
At Brussels, the current forecasts, including projections of per capita income, debt, unemployment, are predicated on the idea that 2013 is the year of the great turnaround, when debt will start to decline, recovery will broaden, per capita incomes will climb and high unemployment rates are expected to decrease by some 20 percent by 2018. These gains are anticipated, even despite the impact of aging populations on productivity and growth, and thus on prosperity.
The article concludes putting the onus of decay on austerity and the inadequacy of ECB fiscal support at a time when such support through LTRO1, 2, and OMT has been overwhelming. In reality, Southern Europe is coping with long-term erosion, which has been compounded by excessive reliance on austerity, at the expense of fiscal support, pro-growth policies and structural reforms. There is no easy way out anymore.
I comment that the article fails to present the concepts 1) that European Socialism and Greek Socialism have been Liberalism’s crowing achievements in Clientelism, that is, no where on planet earth has pork and patronage been so well manipulated as in the PIGS, 2) that the wine and agricultural production of France has boomed and provided great prosperity under common EU laws, 3) that credit schemes of funding municipal debt by Franco-Belgian financial institution Dexia supported money market fund development in the US for many years, 4) and that financialization of ADRs of Eurozone companies, especially those in Ireland, EIRL, specifically ICLR, RYAAY, CRH, STX, COV, IR, WCRX, FLTX, as well as in European Financials, EUFN, such as IRE, SAN, DB, provided great reward for leveraged speculative investing through the EUR/JPY carry trade scheme.
Doug Noland writes of Periphery to core transmission of the destruction of credit and money. Over liquefied and complacent markets were content to continue lending to Greece, despite increasingly obvious issues. In November 2009, Greece could tap the markets for two-year paper at just over 2%. and the marketplace could presume a Eurozone backstop and ignore fundamentals. Six months later, with market yields at 16%, Greece was hopelessly insolvent.
If financial conditions are indeed tightening globally, I would expect the typical “periphery to core” dynamic to begin to jump from EM to the more fragile peripheral developed markets. Europe and the euro initially benefited from the flight out of EM, although this week’s market performance was noteworthy. The euro dropped 1.2% (1.75% vs. the yen), its worst performance in weeks. Germany’s DAX index was hit for 3.7%, France fell 3.3%, Spain sank 4.6% and Italian stocks dropped 3.8%. Perhaps indicating hedge fund de-risking/de-leveraging, European sovereign bond yield spreads (to bunds) widened this week. German bunds widened 8 bps verses French yields to a one-month high 61 bps. Bund to Italian and Spanish bond spreads widened a notable 15 and 16 bps. And at the troubled Eurozone periphery, Portugal saw its 10-yr yields jump 16 bps to 6.59% and Greece yields rose 24 bps to 10.02%.
The article is correct, there is no easy way out, as Jesus Christ is operating in dispensation, that is in the political and economic plan of God, Ephesians, 1:10, and has produced a moral hazard based peak prosperity, as is seen in the ratio of Eurozone Stocks, EZU, relative to Eurozone Debt, EZU:EU, topping out. He is terminating the sovereignty of democratic nation states, by releasing the First Horseman of the Apocalypse, the rider on the white horse who has a bow, yet no arrows, Revelation, 6:1-2, to pass the baton of sovereignty to regional nannycrats who will rule in statist public partnerships, in a EU One Euro Government, featuring a fiscal, banking, and debt union, as these are the most vulnerable of all of Liberalism’s democracies, as they are insolvent sovereign, having insolvent financial institutions, whose seigniorage has come only through the ECB’s Mario Draghi and his monetary policies of LTRO 1, 2, and OMT.
Now with all of the world central banks’ monetary policies, in particular global ZIRP, having exhusated, and in fact having turned “money good” investments bad on the fear that Treasury Debt cannot be paid, the bond vigilantes are calling interest rates higher on Sovereign Debt, BWX, destroying the sovereign authority of all nations as well as destroying their fiscal spending capability, and thus entire economies.
Although Greeks cannot be Germans, through God’s hand of destiny, they will soon be one, living in a region of economic and political governance, where the Southern EU Nations, will be hollow moons revolving about planet Germany, as nannycrats meet in summits to waive national sovereignty and announce pooled EU sovereignty, for regional security, stability, and sustainability. As seen in the Statue of Empires in Daniel 2:25-45, God’s idea of economy is and always has been empire; the two global kick as empires that have existed since the late 1700s, first the British Empire, and second America, are at peak sovereignty, and peak seigniorage. Soon, out of a global credit bust and financial system breakdown, presented in Revelation 13:3-4, the ten toed kingdom of regional governance, also known as the Beast Regime of Revelation 13:1-4, will rule the world.
The fiat money system be no more; the diktat money system is emerging in its place.
Diktat money is defined as the compliance required, as well as the trust that is engendered, the debt servitude that is enforced, and the austerity schemes that are experienced, such as heavy losses on large bank deposits via bailins, levying additional taxes, privatizations, capital controls, import curbs of branded items, sale of a country’s central bank’s gold reserves, fiscal councils, such as those reported on by the IMF, Case studies of fiscal councils and The functions and impact of fiscal councils, and statist public private partnerships, which oversee regional economic commerce, trade, and the factors of production, when sovereign regional leaders such as Jeroen Dijsselbloem, President of the Eurogroup, and Michel Barnier, EU Commissioner responsible for internal market and services, as well as sovereign regional sovereign bodies, such as the ECB, invoke mandates for regional security, stability, and sustainability. And diktat money is seen in countries with high current account deficit, such as in India, where import duties have been declared on the import of gold, and the import of gold coins banned; and such as in Indonesia, where curbs are placed on the import of luxury cars and some branded goods.