This document is posted in the easier to read Google Documents format here
Financial Market Report for the week ending December 27, 2013
1) … An inquiring mind asks, do you have an economic way of thinking? One’s economic thinking is determined by three questions and is shaped by truth which is defined as that which is reliable for belief or a trustworthy promise. and ethics which is defined as economic regard for the property and person of another.
First economic question, Where does economic theory come from and what is economic theory?
Classical economics theory comes out education in University Hotbeds, such as George Mason University in Arlington VA, or Auburn University in Auburn AL. On the other hand, dispensational economic theory comes by the happenstance of Jesus Christ in the divine moments of life, and is presented in books such as The Economy of God written by Witness Lee.
Agnostic philosophers present economic theory as a set of monetary hypotheses proven by reason to be true. Libertarian philosophers present economic theory as a set of monetary hypotheses matched up against the facts and logically established as reliable.
Henry Hazlitt writes in Ludwig Von Mises Understanding Austrian Economics The Austrian view was revived mainly by one man, an Austrian by birth as well as an “Austrian” by conviction, Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973). He made his influence felt both by his written works and by his oral teachings. Among his early distinguished students and followers were Gottfried Haberler, Fritz Machlup, Oskar Morgenstern, Lionel (now Lord) Robbins, and, most influential of all, F.A. Hayek (b. 1899).
Though there is now a gratifying number of able young American economists writing in the Austrian tradition, Human Action still stands as the most complete, powerful, and unified presentation of Austrian economics in any single volume. Mises always generously acknowledged his indebtedness to his predecessors. He recalled in a short autobiography (Notes and Recollections, 1978) that around Christmas 1903 he read Menger’s Principles of Economics for the first time. “It was the reading of this book,” he wrote, “that made an ‘economist’ of me.
Today’s zealous group of younger “Austrian” economists, though all acknowledging their great debt to Mises, do not treat his Human Action as the final word on the subject but are exploring a whole range of economic problems with a new vigor. Murray Rothbard (b. 1926), a student of Mises’s, produced a two-volume treatise, Man, Economy, and State (1962), along Misesian lines.
The “Austrian” economists, more consistently than those of any other school, have criticized nearly all forms of government intervention in the market — especially inflation, price controls, and schemes for redistribution of wealth or incomes because they recognize that these always lead to erosions of incentives, to distortions of production, to shortages, to demoralization, and to similar consequences deplored even by the originators of the schemes
On the other hand dispensational economists present dispensation economics theory as monetary hypotheses revealed by faith and trusted in for life experience; these rely on sound New Testament doctrine as being objective truth, and a source of virtue and ethics. Dispensation is defined as the household management plan of God to establish a paradigm in every age, and to make all things therein, mature, complete, and fulfilled
Second economic question, What is money?
Money is defined as the credit and trade that comes from the administration of a household or stronghold.
The Apostle Paul wrote of dispensation, in Ephesians 1:10, communicating that Jesus Christ is in charge of all things economic and political. Thus He is in full administration of money, whether it be fiat money or diktat money, Specifically He is overseeing the completion, fulfillment, and perfecting of the paradigm and age of liberalism, and is commencing that of authoritarianism.
And, the Apostle John wrote of the Revelation of Jesus Christ, communicating those things which must shortly come to pass in Revelation 1:1, meaning that once things start to flow, they will, like lined dominoes, topple one upon another, to bring forth end time events, and the Kingdom of God on earth.
Third economic question, What is economics?
Economics is defined as the ethical experience between a persona and another, a corporation, and the state, that is government. One’s economics will either be in iniquity or in righteousness, as one has movement in the spirit of iniquity or the sprit of righteousness.
2) … Three news events during December 2013 communicate that Jesus Christ opened the Second Seal of The Scroll Of End Time Events, presented in Revelation 6:3-4. “When the Lamb opened the second seal, I heard the second living creature say, Come!” Then another horse came out, a fiery red one. Its rider was given power to take peace from the earth and to make people kill each other. To him was given a large sword.”
The first news event reflecting that Jesus Christ has opened the second seal on the scroll of end time events comes from Jason Ditz of Antiwar who reports Iran Sanctions Bill to skip Committees; Hawks promise veto-proof majority with vote likely in January. Yesterday’s open letter from Senate committee leaders warning against the Iran sanctions bill appears to have had the opposite effect, as Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid (D- NV) is said to have decided to bypass the committees outright and could bring the bill to a vote as soon as January. The bill would impose yet more sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, violating the interim P5+1 deal with Iran and likely ruining ongoing diplomacy with the nation.
President Obama has promised to veto the bill, warning it would sabotage the talks and might lead to a war. Senate hawks like Lindsey Graham (R-SC), for whom that is the entire point, have promised to secure a veto-proof majority of 67 Senators for the bill, and early reports are that some 50 are now looking to be co-sponsors, suggesting that’s a real possibility. In addition to imposing new sanctions on Iran, the bill also expresses Senate support for an Israeli attack on Iran at any time, pledging American support to such a war whenever it is launched.
The second news event comes via Alex Kane, assistant editor for Mondoweiss and the World editor for AlterNet who posts Meet the American Hedge Fund Billionaire who could start a Holy War in the Middle East. Henry Swieca funds Temple Institute, a group that is eyeing Islam’s third holiest site. Forbes profiles him having net worth is $1.2 billion as of September 2013. He is well-known as a financial guru. But he’s less known for what his foundation pours money into: right-wing, pro-Israel causes. Along with a host of charitable groups and domestic Jewish centers, the Swieca Family Foundation, which he runs with his Israeli American wife Estee, he has poured tons of cash into pro-Israel groups, and is now assisting the Temple Institute, an organization that promotes the building of the Third Temple on the third most holy site for Muslims.
In early December, the Washington Post disclosed that Swieca and his wife funded the Jerusalem based Temple Institute’s move to “to a large, renovated space in the Old City’s Jewish Quarter, overlooking the Western Wall.” The move put the institute just a short walk away from the place where they hope the Third Temple arises.
The religious extremists who run the Temple Institute have their sights set on the Haram al-Sharif, or the Noble Sanctuary in English, which is also the Temple Mount for Jews. “Our short-term goal is to rekindle the flame of the Holy Temple in the hearts of mankind through education,” the Temple Institute says on their website. “Our long-term goal is to do all in our limited power to bring about the building of the Holy Temple in our time.”
In the middle of the Noble Sanctuary sits the Dome of the Rock, a shrine whose gold dome is a fixture on the Jerusalem skyline. The Noble Sanctuary is home to the Al Aqsa Mosque, thought to be the place where the Prophet Muhammad was transported to from Mecca and is the third holiest site to Muslims around the world. At the same time, it is a site deeply revered by Jews, since it is the place thought to be where the First and Second Temples stood. The Second Temple was famously destroyed in A.D. 70 by the Romans, who then sent Jews into exile. The Temple Institute says that “the Temple Mount has to be cleared of the Dome of the Rock and the mosques which are presently located upon it before the physical rebuilding of the Holy Temple can begin.”
Both Judaism and Islam have competing claims to the site, making it the most contested piece of real estate on earth. In 2000, a provocative visit by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to the Noble Sanctuary set off clashes that many say sparked the Second Intifada. It continues to be a frequent site of clashes between Palestinians and Israeli authorities.
This month, Israel reportedly asked Jordan, which administers the holy site, to consider allowing some level of Jewish worship, feeding into Palestinian fears that Israel wants to control all of Jerusalem forever instead of ceding the eastern half of it to a Palestinian state. Jordan rejected the request, with the director of the trust that controls the site saying that granting the request would spark “bloodshed.”
Founded in 1984, the Temple Institute has been hard at work on a number of activities: recreating ritual objects to be used for a Third Temple; hosting conferences on research about the temple; educating the public and Israeli soldiers about its history; and lobbying for changes to the status quo that prohibits Israeli Jews from praying openly on the Noble Sanctuary’s/Temple Mount’s grounds. The organization, founded by a far-right religious zealot named Rabbi Yisrael Ariel, is also bolstered by the support of evangelical Christians, who provide the organization with much of their income through buying entrance tickets and museum shop items. Christian Zionists fully support the aims of the Temple Institute. They believe that the building of a Third Jewish Temple is a prerequisite to the coming of the Messiah and the apocalypse.
Ariel, a former Israeli soldier who helped capture Jerusalem’s Old City from Jordan during the 1967 War, leading to full Israeli control of Jerusalem (and the West Bank, Gaza, the Sinai and the Golan Heights), is a former member of the Kach party. Led by Rabbi Meir Kahane, the party was banned in Israel for its violent and racist rhetoric, which included advocating for the expulsion of all Arabs from the lands Israel controls. In 1984, members of a Jewish terrorist group were arrested by the Israeli police for plotting to blow up the Dome of the Rock. Ariel was one of the only people to speak out in support of their actions..
Today, the Temple Institute does not advocate for violence. Instead, they’re focused on changing the status quo that prevails at the holy site through other means. Those other means, though, are still considered dangerous and inflammatory. In the words of Israeli journalist Gershom Gorenberg, the author of a book that examines the struggle over the Temple Mount, the institute’s actions are “education for conflict over the world’s most contested holy site.”
The current arrangement at the Noble Sanctuary/Temple Mount dates back to the 1967 War. Although Israel had captured a site revered to Jews, they gave control of the Noble Sanctuary to the Jordanian-run Islamic waqf, a trust that controls access to the site, making it that rare area in Jerusalem where Israeli authorities don’t call all the shots. In 1921, members of Israel’s Chief Rabbinate crafted rules that prohibited Jews from entering the area. They said that Jews can only enter if they are ritually pure, but that the necessary purification ceremony is prohibited for various religious reasons. These rules were recently reaffirmed by the rabbinate. Jews are allowed to pray at the Western Wall, another holy place considered to be the wall outside the Temple Mount.
The legal prohibitions that surround the holy place haven’t stopped Jews who disagree from going to the Noble Sanctuary. In recent months, the Washington Post and the New York Times have highlighted the increasing numbers of Jews going up to pray on at the contested site. According to numbers published by an Israeli newspaper, the number of Jews visiting the holy site increased from 5,700 in 2009 to 8,300 in 2011. If Jews are found to be publicly praying, Israeli police take them away, with some being arrested. But some Jews try to pray discreetly.
The Temple Institute has been pushing Israeli Jewish prayer on the Temple Mount. In September, the organization teamed up with a right-wing movement called Manhigut Yehudit to lead tours at the site for the Jewish holiday of Sukkot.
The organization has been encouraged in recent months by a growing body of right-wing, expansionist Israeli legislators who share the Temple Institute’s goal in changing the prohibitions on prayer at the Noble Sanctuary/Temple Mount. In November, the HaBayit HaYehudi (Jewish Home) party, which promotes annexing 60 percent of the occupied West Bank, introduced a bill that would establish regular prayer areas for Jews on the holy site. On November 4, 2013, a heated debate in the Israeli Knesset broke out in response to proposed changes for prayer on the Noble Sanctuary/Temple Mount.
“When King David bought the Temple Mount you were savages in the desert. You have no rights on the Temple Mount, that’s a historical fact. Nothing will help you. Even now you are savages,” the Jewish Home’s Orit Strock told Palestinian Knesset members. In response, Balad’s Jamal Zahalka told her that she was “playing with fire.”
Another Palestinian legislator, Ahmed Tibi, warned that “the second intifada broke out because of Al Aqsa and the third intifada will break out because of you.”
For historical record I post The Temple Institute presentation of, Yom Yerushalayim, Jerusalem Day, The 28th day of the month of Iyar,
The third news event is provided by Bill Van Auken, who posts in WSWS US prepares strikes against Islamists in Iraq Two years after Obama declared the US war in Iraq over, Washington is shipping Hellfire missiles and preparing for direct intervention against the same Islamist forces it backed in Syria
3) … Liberalism’s peak fiat wealth, that is Peak Stocks, VT, was achieved on Friday December 28, 2013, via a buy of the Euro and a sell of the Yen.
In a perverse fashion peak fiat wealth came via the destruction of fiat money. The destruction of Credit, AGG, as well as Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market currencies, CEW, came as as currency traders drove the Euro strongly higher to 136 and the Yen lower to 93
A strong US Dollar, $USD, UUP, relative to the Japanese Yen, FXY, during December 2013, stimulated ongoing investment in US Regional Banks, KRE, and a strong Euro, FXE, relative to the Japanese Yen, stimulated ongoing investment in European Financials, EUFN, driving up US Stocks, VTI, and Eurozone Stocks, EZU, to their rally highs.
Thus strong currency carry trading, seen in a higher Dollar Yen cross, USD/JPY, and in a higher Euro Yen cross, EUR/JPY, drove World Stocks, VT, Nation Investment EFA, and Global Financials, IXG, to their six month long rally highs at the end of December 2013, producing Liberalism’s peak wealth.
Communication Equipment Manufacturers, Memory chips, and Data Storage Devices, were strong gainers from carry trade investment, as is seen in the chart of the EUR/JPY, together with ALU, MITL, NOK, ARRS, HRS, LORL, WDC, STX, and MU.
World Stocks, VT, rose 1.7%, to a new rally high, reflecting strong investing in five areas:
1) Risk Investing, FXR, CHII ,PBS, RZV, PSCI, FPX, PJP, XTN, TAN, ZIV
2) Global Spending Investing, PKB, BJK, IGV, PSCC, SOCL, PPA, CSD, IBB, CARZ, PSCD
3) Global Growth Investing, SOXX, TAN, PICK, IPN, FLM, SLX, WOOD, XHB, RZG, MHK
4) Consumer Spending, Investing, PNQI, RXI, IYC, FDN, PBJ, PSCC, IHF, XRT, KXI, PSCD
5) Eurozone Countries, EWI, EWG, EFNL, EWN, EDEN, EIRL, GREK, PGAL, EWO, EWP
The top performing stock sectors for the week ending December 28, 2013 included
Steel, SLX 4.9%
Inverse volatility, ZIV 4.0
Industrial Textiles, MHK 3.7
Design Build, FLM 3.1
Solar Energy, TAN 2.8
Resorts and Casinos, BJK 2.5
Global Industrial Production, IPN 2.4
Copper Miners, COPX 2.5
Homebuilders, XHB 2.4
Automobiles, CARZ 1.9
Small Cap Consumer Staples, PSCC 1.9
Social Media, SOCL 1.9
Small Cap Pure Value, RZV 1.9
Semiconductors, SOXX 1.9
US Infrastructure, PKB 1.8
Media, PBS 1.7
Industrial Mining, PICK 1.7
Solar Energy, TAN 1.7
Global Industrial Production, FXR 1.3
Timber Producers, WOOD, 1.2
Small Cap Energy, PSCE, 2.7, Energy Production, XOP, 1.6, Energy Service, OIH, 1.9
Exxon Mobil, XOM, 2.9
Gold Mines, GDX, 4.5 and Silver Miners, SIL, 5.1, SSRI, 5.7
The chart of Gold, $GOLD,shows a close at $1213, up 0.9% for the week.
Gold, GLD, rose 1.0% and Silver, SLV, rose 3.9%.
The chart of the S&P 500, SPX, shows a close at $1841, up 1.3% for the week. This week’s risk-on investing producing peak wealth is seen in the Risk On ETN, ONN, trading higher, and the Risk OFF EFN, trading lower, as well as Call Write Bonds, CWB, trading up to and then falling from a rally high, as well as Junk Bonds, JNK, falling from its zenith high, and the Euro Yen Currency Carry Trade, EUR/JPY, topping out; and Bespoke Investment Group reporsing S&P 500 Hits Most Overbought Level Since May. Nouf of Wave Trading Patterns writes in Safehaven.cocm “2013 was the year of the JPY carry trade; and asks is a reversal at hand?
Nation Investment, EFA, rose 2.3%, to a new rally high; and Small Cap Nation Investment, rose IFSM, 2.7%, to a new rally high; nations trading higher included
The Eurozone, EZU, 2.5%
Greece, GREK, 4.8%, with the National Bank of Greece, NBG, 2.9%,
Spain, EWP 3.3, with Banco Santander, SAN, 3.0%
Italy, EWI, 2.8
Netherlands, EWN, 2.7
Germany, EWG, 2.5
Finland, EFNL, 2.5
Denmark, EDEN, 2.4
Austria, EWO, 2.8
Portugal, PGAL, 1.8
Ireland, EIRL, 1.5
Sweden, EWD, 3.2
The UK, EWU, 3.1
UK Small Caps, 2.1
Switzerland, EWL, 2.3
The US, VTI, 1.3
US Small Caps, IWM, 1.5, with Regional Banks, KRE, 1.5%
Nikkei, NKY, 1.0; Of note, Japanese 10-year JGB yields rose to a three-month high to stand at 0.69%; with the result that the Inverse of Japanese Government Bond, JGBS, rose 1.3% for the week, as Bloomberg reports Shinzo Abe gave the go-ahead for Y95.88tn ($921bn) in spending for the year beginning in April 2014, an increase of 3.5% over this year’s initial budget.
Bloomberg also reports Japan’s government plans to decrease annual bond sales for the first time in six years, while boosting issuance of inflation-indexed notes to meet demand from pension funds. Investors such as banks and life insurers will be offered 155.1 trillion yen ($1.49 trillion) in the 12 months starting April 1, down from a record 156.6 trillion yen in the initial plan for the current fiscal year. Sales of linkers will increase by at least 1 trillion yen to a total of 1.6 trillion yen in the period.
Asia Excluding Japan, EPP, 1.2
South Korea, EWY, 2.9
Taiwan, EWT, 2.1
Singapore, EWS, 2.0
Singapore Small Caps, EWSS, 1.7,
Australia, EWA, 0.9
Australia Small Caps, KROO, -2.8
BRICS, EEB, 2.2
China, YAO, 0.9
China Small Caps, ECNS, 1.4
India, INP, 0.3
India Small Caps, SMIN, 3.7
Russia, RSX, 2.2
Russia Small Caps, ERUS, 1.2
Brazil, EWZ, 2.9
Brazil Small Caps, EWZS, 2.1
Thailand, THD, -2.8
Turkey, TUR, -8.1 Taylan Bilgic of Bloomberg reports The lira plummeted to a record and Turkish stocks slumped the most in the world as a showdown between the government and judicial powers triggered uncertainty over the country’s political stability. The currency weakened as much as 2.3%. against the dollar. Turkey’s two-year bond yield climbed for a second day, rising above 10%.
Emerging Markets, EEM, 2.0, with Emerging Market Mining, EMMT, 3.2%
Global Financials, IXG, 1.7%; financial sectors trading higher included:
Life Insurance Company, ING, 4.5
European Financials, EUFN, 2.8
Regional Banks, KRE, 1.5
Investment Bankers, KCE, 0.9
The Too Big To Fail Banks, RWW, 0.5
Stockbrokers, IAI 0.2
Emerging Market Financials, EMFN, 0.2
Japanese Banks, SMFG, 1.1, MTU 2.8, MFG 3.8
Chinese Financials, CHIX 1.0; Ambrose Evans Pritchard writes China eases immediate cash crunch
India Earnings, EPI 1.0
Brazil Financials, BRAF -1.3
Llyods Financial Group, LYG, 2.3
Swiss Banks, UBS, 2.7, CS 2.9
Canadian Banks, BNS, 1.2, RY, 0.9
Panama Bank, BLX, 2.4
South Korea Banks, SHG, 2.8, KB 2.4, WF, 0.6,
Yield bearing sectors trading higher included:
Energy Partnership, AMJ, 3.0%
Global Telecom, IST, 2.0
Leveraged Buyouts, PSP, 1,7
Dividend Growth, VIG, 1.3
Bond vigilantes called the Benchmark Interest Rate, ^TNX, higher to 3.01, a 2-1/2 year high destroying fiat money. This forced Aggregate Credit, AGG, 0.21%, lower. Currency traders followed suit, in debt deflation, with competitive currency devaluation, successfully selling the Japanese Yen.
For the week on the upside, the Brazilian Real, BZF, 2.0%, the Swiss Franc, 1.6%, the Indian Rupe, ICN, 1.4%, the Euro, FXE, 1.1%, the British Pound, FXB, 0.6%, the Swedish Krona, FXS, 0.4%. And for the week on the downside, the Canadian Dollar, FXC, 0.7%, the Australian Dollar, FXA, 2.4%, and the Japanese Yen, FXY, 2.6%.
This week’s investment gains have nothing to do with a greater likelihood of future investment gains coming from the stimulus of the world central banks, greater success in enterprise development, or greater profits from global growth and expanding global trade.
Reuters reports Euro rises to more than 2-year high vs. dollar; yen falls. This week’s investment gains come from speculative leveraged investing, that is ongoing commitment to the pursuit of yield in a debt trade, specifically the pursuit of Junk Bonds, JNK, and Distressed Investments, FAGIX, as well as commitment to currency carry trade investing based upon the sale of the Japanese Yen, FXY, and the buy of the Euros and investing in US Stocks, thereby supporting the US Dollar.
Jesus Christ opened the First Seal of the Scroll on October 23, 2013, which released the Rider on the White Horse, who has bow without any arrows to effect a global coup d’etat to transfer sovereignty from nations states and their banks to regional bodies and regional nannycrats … which enabled the bond vigilantes to call the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, higher from 2.48%, and to steepen the 10 30 U S Sovereign Debt Yield Curve, $TNX:$TYX, … which destroyed the monetary authority of the world central banks and which destroyed fiat money, … which set in motion an awesome rise in the Euro Yen, EURJPY, currency carry trade, as well as the Dollar Yen, USDJPY, … and which leveraged up fiat wealth to produce liberalism’s peak moral hazard based prosperity on December 28, 2013, which is likely to be seen in Total Credit, reported quarterly, and M2 Money, reported weekly, topping out in value.
This achievement comes with Doug Noland reporting in Safehaven.com that after the Ben Bernanke Put, and after the Mario Draghi Do Whatever it Takes Pledge of August 2012, the Fed has injected a Trillion dollars (and the BOJ providing somewhat less) of new “money” directly into overheated financial markets in a non-crisis environment.
For the year, the Fed’s balance sheet ballooned 37% to surpass $4.0 TN. Bank of Japan assets surged 42% to exceed $2.0 TN. From my analytical framework, it can be described only as “a year living dangerously.” As he led the Federal Reserve deeper into the untested waters of contemporary monetary inflation, chairman Bernanke took time to proclaim Japan’s parallel inflationary policy a case of “enrich thy neighbor” (in contrast to Depression-era “beggar thy neighbor”).
As destabilized, speculative markets tend to do, they mounted an unpredictable reaction to the Trillions of new global liquidity. In most cases, global bond prices, AGG, actually declined (yields rose). After beginning the year at 1.76%, 10-year Treasury yields surged 124 bps to 3.00%.
EM economies generally saw inflationary pressures rise as real growth slowed markedly in the face of ongoing rapid Credit expansions. This created an unappealing environment for global investors, with the more sophisticated “hot money” heading toward the exits.
Brazil’s local (real) sovereign yields surged 393 bps in 2013 to 13.10%, while some major bankruptcies took a heavy toll on Brazilian corporates. Political instability contributed to the 379 bps jump in Turkish (lira) 10-year yields, to 10.35%. Mexican yields rose 116 bps to 6.50%. Indonesia was an EM problem child, as 10-year yields surged 314 bps to 8.33%. India confronted a worsening inflation backdrop, with 10-year yields jumping 91 bps to 8.95%. Inflationary pressures also hurt Russian bonds, as 10-year sovereign yields jumped 91 bps to 7.81%.
After faltering EM bond markets fell out of favor, “periphery” European bonds (backstopped by the Draghi ECB) became a favored high-yield target for the global speculator community. Greek bond yields sank 226 bps this year (to 8.21%), with 10-year sovereign yields in Spain down 106 bps to 4.21%; Portugal down 70 bps to 5.96%; and Italy down 29 bps to 4.21%. Despite moribund economies, Spanish equities were up 21.1% in 2013 and Italian stocks gained 16.5%. I’d be curious to know the scope of leverage in European debt (and elsewhere!) financed by borrowing in or shorting the yen (“yen carry trade”).
EM currencies suffered. The Argentine peso declined 24.3%, the Indonesian rupiah 20.1%, the South African rand 19.5%, the Turkish lira 17.2%, the Brazilian real 12.3%, the India rupee 11.1%, the Chilean peso 8.6%, the Peruvian new sol 8.7%, the Colombian peso 8.4%, the Philippine peso 7.6%.
The commodities currencies were hit, with the South African rand down 19.5%, the Australian dollar 14.7%, the Brazilian real 12.3% and the Norwegian krone 9.5% and the Canadian dollar 7.3%.
EM equities for the most part also underperformed. Brazil’s Bovespa dropped 15.9% and Turkish equities were hit for 18.3%.
Surging Japanese stock prices were fueled by enormous Bank of Japan “money” printing and the resulting 17.5% yen (vs. the dollar) devaluation. Japan’s Nikkei equities index posted a historic advance (up 55.6%).
The Fed’s skittish tapering reversal put an exclamation point on five years of unprecedented market interventions and distortions. In my now 24 years in the industry, I’ve witnessed my share of market exuberance and excess. Yet 2013 took speculation to a new level. I have argued the breadth of excess throughout U.S. equities surpassed even 1999. The S&P 500 returned (including dividends) 31.9%.
For 2013, the Fed’s $1 TN monetary inflation again countermanded normal system behavior and relationships – most notably further inflating securities and asset prices
Liberalism’s peak wealth has not come about because of the confidence in the world central bankers, but rather just the opposite; peak wealth has come as the currency carry traders strongly sold the Japanese Yen, realizing that the world central banks monetary policies have crossed the rubicon of sound monetary policy and have made “money good” investments bad, such include Emerging Market Bonds, EMB, Municipal Bonds, MUB, Treasury Bonds, TLT, Mortgage Backed Bonds, MBB, that is the whole spectrum of Government Bonds, GOVT, as well as Emerging Markets, EEM, such as Brazil, EWZ, EWZS, Indonesia, IDX, IDXJ, Thailand, THD, and the Philippines, EPHE, as is seen in their ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart.
Aki Ito of Bloomberg reports the Fed’s Fishers as saying While stocks globally have been fueled by central bank stimulus … I wouldn’t call it a bubble.
The crack up boom in fiat wealth presents extreme systemic risk.
Sober Look posts US credit risk appetite hits euphoria. And Sridhar Natarajan and Krista Giovacco of Bloomberg report The amount of loans to the riskiest U.S. companies ballooned to a record this year, propelled by unprecedented demand for floating-rate debt that offers protection from rising interest rates. The market for junk-rated loans increased to $683 billion, exceeding the 2008 peak of $596 billion, according to Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ Leveraged Commentary and Data. The $130 billion surge this year was fueled by borrowings that don’t include typical lender protections such as limits on leverage. Loans, which suffered the biggest losses in the fixed- income market during the financial crisis, staged a comeback as investors funneled a record $64.4 billion into funds that buy the debt in anticipation the Federal Reserve would start unwinding its bond buying. The demand has enabled companies take on more debt for shareholder rewards, prompting regulators to warn that the excesses which contributed to the credit crisis may be creeping back. ‘The worst deals are made in the best of times is a phrase we hear often,’ Frank Ossino, of Newfleet Asset Management, said. ‘While the default environment will remain low, ever more aggressive transactions become the seeds of the next default cycle.'”
Steven Russolillo of the WSJ reports U.S. companies are showering cash on shareholders, powering the stock market’s record-breaking rally. Share buybacks and dividends are reaching levels unseen since before the financial crisis, as persistent economic uncertainty prompts cash-rich companies to reward shareholders rather than invest in other activities. U.S. companies in the S&P 500-stock index bought back $128.2 billion of their own shares in the third quarter. That is the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2007. Combined, stock buybacks and dividends totaled $207 billion in the third quarter, also the highest in nearly six years.
4) … There are many signs and angst of the Beast rising to replace the Creature from Jekyll Island.
John Redwood writes Staying out of the Euro requires a new relationship. The EU partners are pressing on rapidly with full union. The logic of the Euro requires ever more control to be taken to the centre over economic, fiscal and banking policy. The logic of ever closer union and the wish to harmonise their countries leads to outbreaks of integrationist policy. The EU view of mutual solidarity and support leads ineluctably to more sharing and pooling of power. This process has been going on for more than a decade since the Euro was established. We need to force the federalist parties to explain how much power they have given away, and to come clean about how little scope there now is for an elected UK government to alter great swathes of policy.
There will never be a new relationship, as God designed from eternity past, that in the last days, the EU rise in preeminence over the UK as well as over the US; these latter two being the twin iron legs of global hegemonic power seen in Daniel’s Statue of Empires presented in Daniel 2:25-45.
The EU was planned to be the very lynchpin of God’s Economy, the concept that Jesus Christ is acting in dispensation, that is the political and economic administration of all things, so as to mature and complete every paradigm and age.
On October 23, 2013, Jesus Christ opened the First Seal of The Scroll of End Time Events, presented in Revelation 6:1-2,thus enabling the Rider on The White Horse, who has a bow without any arrows, to empower the bond vigilantes to commence calling the Interest Rate on the Ten Year Note, ^TNX, that is the “Means of Economic Destructionism”, higher from 2.48%, thereby destroying fiat money, and to begin destroying fiat wealth, VT, as well as Nation Investment, EFA, and Global Financial Institutions, IXG, something that was done through debt deflation by the currency traders selling the Major World Currencies, DBV, the week ending December 13, 2013, and the Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, the week ending December 20, 2013.
The trade higher in the Benchmark Interest Rate, ^TNX, beginning on October 23, 2013, was an extinction event which terminated the paradigm and age of liberalism, and pivoted the world into that of authoritarianism.
Bible prophecy of Revelation 13:1-4 communicates that Jesus Christ is bringing forth a number of new things, as liberalism’s dynamos of creditism, corporatism, globalism, are powering down, and authoritarianism’s dynamo of regionalism is powering up.
Under liberalism bankers, corporations, government leaders, entrepreneurs, and investors of nation state democracies were the legislators of economic value and the legislators of economic life that shaped one’s means and one’s ends. In contrast, under authoritarianism, currency traders, bond vigilantes and nannycrats working in public private partnerships and in regional governance, are the legislators of economic value and are the legislators that shape one’s means and one’s ends.
Welcome to totalitarian collectivism; it’s the complement of regional governance as the Beast regime of regional governance is rising to rule the world. Soon out of the Club Med crisis of sovereign insolvency and banking insolvency, it will establish policies of diktat of regional governance in every one of the world’s ten regions, and schemes of totalitarian collectivism in every one of mankind’s seven institutions, where the EU will be model, that is the template, for all of the regional zones.
The beast regime’s power is quickly growing, and cannot be stopped by John Redwood, or Nigel Farage, or anyone else.
In The Road to Serfdom, Hayek argued that “Economic control is not merely control of a sector of human life which can be separated from the rest; it is the control of the means for all our ends” p95.
Under authoritarianism, the dynamo of regionalism will be so strong, that economic control by regional nannycrats will be total, as they rule in political, fiscal, monetary, and economic policies of diktat, through statist public private partnerships; thus creating a regional gulag of totalitarian collectivism, in every one of mankind’s seven institutions, where debt servitude is enforced for regional security, stability and sustainability. The new normal will be austerity. Personal property will be appropriated by the regional superstate, as personal property rights, and the traditional rule of law, is superseded by regional property and regional property rights.
Steve Light and A. Woodson, of WSWS write Obama pushes program to turn public schools over to corporations. Obama, backed by New York City’s mayor-elect Bill de Blasio and the teachers’ union, is promoting efforts to privatize public education.
5) … A European Superstate, one of great democratic deficit, will emerge out of a soon coming Eurozone sovereign insolvency, banking insolvency, and corporate insolvency crisis.
Mike Mish Shedlock writes European Monetary Union misnamed. I Propose GEU (German Economic Union) or USG (United States of Germany). Merkel’s first parliamentary speech of her third term adds credence to the disorderly breakup thesis.
In all respect, if God’s word of bible prophecy, presented in Daniel 2:25-45, Revelation 13:1-4, and Daniel 7:7, be true, then there will come a day, when Mr Shedlock will have to eat his Austrian economics thesis.
The dispensation economics manifest presents that God, that is the Sovereign Lord God, purposed from eternity past that all those living in the Euroland, will have economic experience in statist public private partnership mandates, coming largely out of Brussels and Berlin. The periphery nations, that is the PIIGS, will exist as hollow moons revolving around planet Belgium and planet Germany. The Portuguese, Irish, Italians, Greeks and Spaniards, can be neither Belgians nor Germans, yet all will be one, living in a gulag of austerity existing under the fiscal, banking, monetary and economic sovereignty of regional nannycrats, as regionalism is authoritarianism’s dynamo of economic activity, establishing diktat policies of regional governance, and totalitarian schemes of debt servitude, all to establish regional security, stability and sustainability.
Germany has consistently taken the preeminence to provide order out of chaos in the Eurozone, as a revived Roman Empire rises in the Eurozone in accordance with Bible prophecy which foretells that out of sovereign armageddon, that is a credit bust and world investment breakdown, a new global economic and political regime of regional governance and totalitarian collectivism will arise as is presented in Revelation 13:1-4.
Germany will continue leading the way forward in regional federalism as Angela Merkel has heard and heeded the 1974 Clarion Call of the Club of Rome for regional global governance, as she and Nicolas Sarkozy called for a true European economic government in August 2011, as investors fled the stocks markets and currency traders sole world currencies and emerging market currencies on fears that a debt union had formed in the EU.
Nelson D Schwartz of the NYT reports that Angela Merkel said in January 1, 2012, New Year’s speech that “Germany has mastered the crisis as no other”. Her blunt message was echoed in Italy, France and Greece, the epicenter of the debt crisis, where Prime Minister Lucas Papademos asked for resolve in seeing reforms through, “so that the sacrifices we have made up to now won’t be in vain.” Germany is the lead partner in the EU ECB Troika, which has been handed the baton of sovereign authority formerly held nation states, by the Rider on The White Horse, that is the First Horseman of the Apocalypse, presented in Revelation 6:1-2, as God is pushing political and economic power of the UK and the US, the two iron legs of global hegemony which have ruled the world since the late 1700s, into the hands of ten kings, who will eventually come to rule, each in his own regional power base, as seen in Revelation 17:12.
Spiegel reports on December 18, 2013, Chancellor urges reforms to preserve Euro. In her first parliamentary speech since her re-election for a third term on Tuesday, she warned that Europe needed to take further action to make the euro zone crisis-proof. And related that the German government would not tolerate a weakening of German industry or job losses, she said. “Germany wants to remain a strong industrial location, we need competitive companies,” she said. “This is about companies and when it’s about companies, it’s about jobs.” She said Germany’s new Economy and Energy Minister, Social Democrat Sigmar Gabriel, would make this very clear to the European Commission.
With this distribution of power to regions, we see the rising of the Two Feet And Ten Toed Kingdom of regional economic governance as foretold in Daniel 2:25-45, which will be mired in the iron of diktat and the clay of totalitarian collectivism. This unstable mixture of governance will eventually crumble and a one world government, Daniel 7:7, will emerge, which will provide a one world currency and global seigniorage Revelation 13:17-18.
Other nations across Europe will follow Germany’s lead. Armorel Kenna of Bloomberg reports Italians Must Make Sacrifices to Avoid Collapse, President Says. Italians will have to make sacrifices to avoid financial collapse and must keep faith in Europe, President Giorgio Napolitano said in a New Year’s speech. “Nobody, today, no social group, can stall on the commitment to contribute to the revival of public accounts to avoid the financial collapse of Italy,” Napolitano said in his televised speech late yesterday. “The sacrifices won’t be useless. Only united can we progress and count as Europeans in a radically changed world.”
At the appointed time, fate, not any human action, will open the curtains, and onto the Europe’s stage will step the most credible leader, Europe’s New Charlemagne, Revelation 13:5-10, together with his banking partner, Mario Draghi, already in place, Revelation 13:11-18.
They will not be elected; rather destiny will bring them forth in a Eurozone coup d etat, to provide order out of chaos, Revelation 6:1-2. These sovereigns will develop the Eurzone into a type of authoritarian revived Roman Empire. The word, will and way of these two will provide a new seigniorage, and the people will be amazed and follow after it, placing their confidence and trust in it, giving it their full allegiance, Revelation 13:3-4.
David R Reagan wrote sovereignty will be sacrificed as a Federal Europe is formed. “German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer repeated his call for a European government in July, 2000, and said the European single currency, the Euro, was “the first step to a federation.” He added that he wanted a “powerful president.”1 Fischer said his aim was “nothing less than a European parliament and a European government, which really do exercise legal and executive power,” to operate under his powerful president. More sinisterly, he welcomed the progress made in removing the “sovereign rights” of nations which he defined as control of currency and control of internal and external security. In summary, Fischer said, “Political union is the challenge for this generation.”2 … (1 and 2 Ibid, “German Foreign Minister floats idea of elected EU president,” The Financial Times, July 7, 2000. This article was a report on a speech by Joschka Fischer to the European Parliament’s constitutional affairs committee.)
In related news Charles Wyplosz, director of the Geneva-based International Center for Money and Banking Studies writing in Vox.EU describes The Ukraine-Russia Deal.
The Ukraine-Russia Deal is a customs union based upon undollar, that is dollarless, economic bartering which will be replicated and serve as a template for regional governance, as leaders meet in summits to renounce national sovereignty and announce regional pooled sovereignty, thus establishing policies of diktat in each of the world’s ten regions, and schemes of totalitarian collectivism unifying all of mankind’s seven institutions, introducing diktat money to replace fiat money, for regional security stability and sustainability, as foretold in bible prophecy of Revelation 13:1-4.
Wikipedia posts On 15 August 1971, the United States unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US$ to gold. This brought the Bretton Woods System to an end and saw the dollar become fiat currency. This action, referred to as the Nixon shock, created the situation in which the United States dollar became a reserve currency used by many states. At the same time, many fixed currencies (such as GBP, for example), also became free-floating.
Milton Friedman, with his Free To Choose principle, fathered the democratic nation state banker regime, headed up by the US Federal Reserve, where fiat money defined as Aggregate Credit, AGG, and Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies, underwrote the investor in investment choice in investing in World Stocks, VT, such as 3M Co, MMM, Nation Investment, EFA, such as Greece, GREK, and Global Financial Institutions, IXG, such as the National Bank of Greece, based upon schemes of debt trades, such as Junk Bonds, JUNK, and currency carry trades, such as the EUR/JPY.
I write with prophetic style, that is the type of writing Samuel Clough describes in Understanding The Spirit of Prophecy, Revelation 19:10. The prophetic will address an event but then add climatic language, usually in the first person for God, describing an ultimate victory or destruction always accompanied by a Divine claim of personally visiting the planet and extreme events that accompany that appearing.
We also know from I Corinthians 13 that prophecy will cease at the end of the age when Jesus comes. Therefore, the witness of Jesus given by the spirit of prophecy is forward looking but only necessary before the end of the age. In other words, it exists only to give testimony of Jesus in this age.
Therefore so long as prophecy exists, there must be a testimony of Jesus still to be given. Implied in that is that for prophecy to cease, the testimony of Jesus contained within prophecy, must no longer be necessary. In other words, in our current age which is filled with darkness, we have need of prophecy to point us forwards to a testimony of Jesus that is yet future, but when we enter an age of light we will no longer need prophecy as a testimony to Jesus. Now we know that the majesty and mystery of Jesus will be proclaimed for all eternity. Therefore prophecy is aiming at a specific testimony of Jesus that is desperately needed in this age, but not in the age to come.
In a moment or crisis, the prophet is also seeing the ultimate crisis of the end of the age. In a period of judgment, the prophet may erupt in terrifying language which is not out of character with the prophecy but rather is connecting the present prophecy with the ultimate judgment at the end of the age. The description of rulers and characters in the prophets accompanied by unusual language is serving to illustrate something concerning the Messiah or something that is anti-Messiah.
The reality is that the ultimate events of the end of the age which are the full revelation of Messiah, the ultimate judgment of all evil, and the permanent installment of the Messiah as the supreme ruler and representation of God on the earth, are intricately interwoven with every period of history. In the age to come we are going to see that all of history was an exact parable illustrating the human predicament and constantly foretelling the ultimate conclusion of the age. We are going to find that God was so kind and loving that virtually all the events of human history are illustrations of some facet of the drama concluding in the restoration of all things.
Once we understand this paradigm, we will see that the correct hermeneutic when interpreting the Scripture is far more literal than we thought it was. We read over the prophets thinking that their predictions refer only to events past and pass over the extreme language where the prophet sees a glimpse of the judgment at the end of the age in the midst of the present judgment. In reality, we were meant to consider the tragedy the prophet was confronting as a picture and then carefully consider the prophet’s language and prepare our hearts with trembling for the yet future day that the prophet was seeing.
In the Spirit of Prophecy, I relate as revealed in the last book of the Bible, The Revelation of Jesus Christ, the sovereign Lord God, began establishing a new order consisting of fifteen New Things in Christ, on October 23, 2013, by releasing the First Horseman of The Apocalypse, Revelation 6:1-2, the Rider on the White Horse. The New Things of Christ are presented in the Dispensation Economics Manifest, which is based upon Ephesians 1:10, the biblical revelation that Jesus Christ is operating in dispensation, that is the household management plan of God to mature, complete and fulfill all things in every age.
Corollary #1 from the Dispensation Economics Manifest, presents that on October 23, 2013, the Rider on the White Horse, enabled the bond vigilantes to call the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, termed the “Means of Economic Destructionism,” higher from 2.48%, and thus PIVOTED the world out of the paradigm and age of liberalism to that of authoritarianism.
Investment charts show the bond vigilantes in calling the Benchmark Interest Rate, ^TNX, higher from 2.48%, on October 23, 2013, produced an” extinction event”, that caused the death of fiat money: Aggregate Credit, AGG, Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, traded lower in value.
As a result “money good” investments in the Emerging Markets, EEM, such as Brazil, EWZ, EWZS, Indonesia, IDX, IDXJ, Thailand, THD, and the Philippines, EPHE, as is seen in their ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart, started to fail. Investors have increasingly become convinced that the monetary policies of the world central banks no longer stimulate global growth and trade, and ongoing strong levels of corporate profitability.
As a result, liberalism’s dynamos of economic activity, creditism, corporatism and globalism, are winding down.
Beginning in 2014, investors will take profits from five years of the swell in fiat wealth, and derisk out of debt trades, such as Blackstone, BX, and deleverage out of currency carry trades, such as the GBP/JPY, with the result that not only will fiat money continue to fail, but fiat wealth, consisting of World Stocks, VT, such as Prudential, PRU, Nation Investment, EFA, such as the UK, EWU, and global Financials Institutions, IXG, Lloyd Financial Group, LYG, will fail as well.
Under authoritarianism, the singular dynamo of regionalism, authoritarianism’s fathers will power up policies of regional governance and schemes of totalitarian collectivism, to provide diktat money, such as statist public private partnerships overseeing commerce, trade and the factors of production, (think in terms of the Ukraine-Russia Deal where oligarchs and nannycrats rule), enforcing debt servitude, for debt serfs living in regional gulags of austerity.
6) … In the age of authoritarianism there are only two forms of sovereign and sustainable wealth, these being diktat and the physical possession of gold bullion. Having said that there are still those who want to short well the financial market place as it turns from a bull market to a bear market; therefore I present through January 10, 2013, my Stockcharts.com chartsite where I provide ETFs which can be used as margin for a brokerage account for short selling purposes these include STPP, HDGE, XVZ, OFF, JGBS, EUO, HYHG, SAGG, SLV, and GLD.
In related article Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge posts What could go wrong Here? US investors have turned the euphoria dial to 11 this week as the percent bullish is the highest since the peak in Fall 2007 and bears are at their lowest percentage since Spring 1987. Thus, the Bull-bear spread (based on AAII’s survey) has never been wider.
A deflationary economic bust is coming soon, out of a fast falling stock market, as investors derisk out of debt trade investments, such as asset manager, Blackstone, BX, and deleverage out of currency carry trade investments, such as global manufacturer, 3M Co, MMM.
7) … Signs of economic deflation are now emerging. Sober Look posts 2013 Growth rates in consumer spending and income diverge. Real personal consumption expenditures increase, while real disposable personal income decreases.
This is exactly my situation, this last year I ran up a $1,500 credit card bill, while my income decreased; leaving me in the position of being able only to pay the minimum payment which covers the 25% APR on the Kroger/ Fred Meyer credit card.
James Brewer of WSWS reports Hundreds of thousands face Christmas holidays without electricity in US and Canada. Utility monopolies like DTE Energy and Consumers Power in Michigan continue to shut off service to hundreds of thousands of homes for late or non-payment of bills
8) … NBC News reports the new normal of ice age weather As temperatures plummet, hundreds of thousands face a Christmas without power