Stocks Turn Lower As The Failure Of Credit Commences On The Exhaustion Of The World Central Banks’ Monetary Authority … The Economic Dynamic Of Deflation Will Replace Inflation … Regional Economic Fascism Will Replace Democracy

Financial Market Report for Wednesday April 2, 2014

This post is presented in Google Documents format here.

On Wednesday April 2, 2014, Small Cap Pure Value, Transportation, Semiconductors, Global Producers, Dividend Bearing Stocks, as well as China Investments topped out, as the failure of credit commenced, turning High Yielding Debt, Notes and Bonds, as well as Global Utilities lower, as the bond vigilantes called the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, higher to 2.79%, on the failure of trust in the world central banks to stimulate economic growth. Major World Currencies traded lower and Agricultural Commodities fell lower.

Volatility, ^VIX, bottomed out, as is seen in most of the Volatility ETFS, TVIX, VIXY, VIXM, XVZ, trading slightly higher.

Small Cap Pure Value Leaders, RZV, Transportation, XTN, Semiconductors, SOXX, Global Producers, FXR, Dividend Bearing Stocks, DTN topped out; and China Investments rose to rally highs, as is seen in the combined ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart of DSUM, and CHIX, CQQQ, ECNS, CHII, TAO, YAO, HNP.

The failure of credit commenced, as evidenced by Aggregate Credit, AGG, trading lower, as the Interest Rate On The US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, traded higher to 2.80%, and as the 10 30 US Sovereign Debt Yield Curve, $TNX:$TYX, steepened, seen in the Steepner ETF, STPP, steepening, forcing the US Ten Year Notes, TLT, lower.

US Treasuries, GOVT, High Yielding Debt, JNK, VCLT, EU, EMB, HYXU, EMLC, HYMB, QLTB, and Notes and Bonds, SHY, IEF, TLT, EDV, FLOT, QLTA, VCLT, PICB, BWX, MBB, as well as Global Utilities, DBU, turned lower on the rise of the Benchmark Interest Rate to 2.79%.

Bellwether Nation Investment, South Africa, EZA, and Interest Rate Sensitive New Zealand, ENZL, traded lower.

Meat Products Leader, TSN, traded lower as Livestock, COW, and Agricultural Commodities,  RJA, CORN, WEAT, JJG, SGG, traded lower.

Most of the Inverse Market Vane ETFs, STPP, XVZ, JGBS, GLD, EUO, YCS, OFF, HDGE, SAGG, TYBS, DNO, traded higher; these could be used as collateral for short selling in a brokerage account.

 

On Thursday, April 3, 2014, World Stocks, VT, and Nation Investment, EFA, were led lower by the credit sensitive US Small Caps, IWC, and by Greece, GREK, Russia, RSX, RSXJ, Sweden, EWD, on lower Major World Currencies, DBV, such as the Swedish Krona, FXS, the Swiss Franc, FXF, and the Euro, FXE, as well as by Emerging Markets, EEM, such as South Africa, EZA, India, INP, SCIN, Brazil, EWZ, EWZS, Thailand, THD,  Egypt, EGPT, Indonesia, IDX, IDXJ, Malaysia, EWM, on lower Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, such as the India Rupe, ICN, and the Brazilian Real, BZF.

Sectors trading lower included, Social Media, SOCL, Biotechnology, IBB, Solar Energy, TAN, Internet Retail, FDN, Nasdaq Internet, PNQI, China Technology, CQQQ, Software, IGV, and

Cloud Computing, SKYY, trade lower.

US Refiners, VLO, MPC, PSX, HFC, and Energy Production, XOP, rose as energy prices, that is Natural Gas, UNG, and Oil, USO, rose on short sell covering. Trefis Team asks What’s Fueling Anadarko’s U.S. Onshore Growth? Anadarko, APC, has identified around 4,000 potential drilling locations in the Niobrara and Codell formations of the Wattenberg field that are expected to provide substantial opportunity for continued activity. But Fracking Service Companies, CJES, BAS, RES, NOAH, EXH, traded lower.

Silver Mines, PAAS, SLW, HL, SSRI, having a PE of 30, are terrifically leverage investments, as is seen in their charts combined with Industrial Miners, PICK, having a PE of 12.

 

On Friday April 4, 2014, The chart of the S&P 500, SPY, shows a trade higher at  the opening bell and a thrust to it its all-time high a minute later; the index traded sideways for the next hour, and then began a steady selloff to its -1.2% mid-afternoon low.

The yield on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, plummeted to 2.72%, on the Non Farm Payroll Report, showing ongoing growth, in what the WSJ relates will keep the Federal Reserve Taper on track, taking Aggregate Credit, AGG, higher, but still below its March 2014 rally high.

Eddy Elfenbein posts March NFP +192K, Unemployment = 6.7%. March nonfarm payrolls came in at 192,000 which was below Wall Street’s consensus for 206,000. The number for January was revised higher by 15,000, and February was revised higher by 22,000. The unemployment rate stayed the same at 6.7%. If we split out the decimals, the unemployment rate fell from 6.716% to 6.712%. Over the last six years, the economy has lost 271,000 jobs. For the first time since August 2009, the jobs to population ratio crossed 58.9%. It had been stuck in a narrow range for more than four years.

Bloomberg posts Private U.S. Payrolls Top Pre-Recession Peak

Mike Shedlock posts Nonfarm Payrolls +192,000, Unemployment Rate Steady at 6.7%. Economy Poised to Accelerate? The official unemployment rate is 6.7%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6, which is much higher at 12.7%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Labor Force Factors.Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs, People retire because they cannot find jobs, People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job, People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job, Disability and disability fraud. Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 9%.

Synopsis. This was a solid jobs report. Weather-related effects were taken back and then some. The only negatives were falling hourly wages and a rise in involuntary part-time employment. Finally, if people start looking for jobs, further declines in the unemployment rate will be difficult to come by, even if job reports are generally favorable.

Economy Poised to Accelerate? Is the economy out of the woods and poised to accelerate? I don’t think so. Global imbalances are still growing, Europe is generally a basket case and China is due for a rather hard landing. I did not believe the widely-held China decoupling theory in 2007, and I do not believe the widely-held US decoupling theory today.

NYT blogs It’s Still Bad for the Long-Term Unemployed

Fear has replaced greed. Volatility, ^VIX, rose, as World Stocks, VT, traded lower on fears that the world central banks monetary policies no longer stimulate global growth and corporate profitability. Sectors trading strongly lower included, Social Media, SOCL, Nasdaq Internet, PNQI, Biotechnology, IBB, Internet Retail, FDN, China Technology, CQQQ, Small Cap Pure Growth, RZG, Media, PBS, Semiconductors, SOXX, Networking, IGN, IPOs, FPX, Pharmaceuticals, PJP, Transportation, XTN, Small Cap Pure Value, RZV, Software, IGV, Solar Energy, TAN, Global Production, FXR, and Cloud Computing, SKYY.

Yield Bearing Equity Investments traded lower, despite the Benchmark Interest rate trading lower to 2.72%. The pursuit of yield in equities is over as is seen in ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart of the two best performing yield chasing ETFs, European Dividends, DFE, and Shipping, SEA, trading lower.

Likewise, the pursuit of yield in credit is over. Bloomberg reports Buying Bonds in Sellers’ World: Prepare to Fail. Want to buy a corporate bond? Good luck finding one. Traders trying to purchase investment-grade notes are failing about 46 percent of the time, close to the worst rate in more than four years as measured by activity on Market Axcess Holdings Inc.’s electronic platform. The Yahoo Finance chart of High Yield Bearing Credit Investments, JNK, VCLT, EU, EMB, HYXU, EMLC, HYMB, QLTB, traded up to rally highs.

Global Financials, IXG, traded lower despite Emerging Market Financials, EMFN, trading higher, on higher Emerging Market Currencies, CEW. Investment Bankers, KCE, Stockbrokers, IAI, and Regional Banks, KRE, all traded lower on fears that the world central banks monetary authority has crossed the rubicon of sound monetary policy making “money good” investments bad.

Nation Investment, EFA, traded lower despite the trade lower in the Benchmark Interest Rate to 2.72%.

Nations trading lower included Greece, GREK, and US Small Caps, IWC, trading lower.

Energy Production, XOP, traded lower despite Oil, USO, and Natural Gas, UNG, trading higher; these  rose on short sell covering.

Short Side of Long Posts The Fed’s Goal To Improve Employment By Printing Money Has Failed! This remains the worst/weakest recovery ever; the real economy has grown very little. Confounded Interest posts Low Paying Services Jobs Lead Recovery.

The Fed’s Goal has never been to improve employment. Though Federal Reserve QEs, ECB LTROs and OMT, PBOC Monetary Injections, and other similar world central bank monetary actions, credit was made widely available to investors and to developed nations and even students, through the speculative leveraged investment community, creating a spectacular moral hazard based prosperity enjoyed by only a relative few, in particular those with fiat wealth and those earning executive incomes, as they profited from investment in debt trades and currency trades in Ireland, EIRL, Greece, GREK, Germany, GERJ, The UK, EWUS, The Gulf, GULF, Egypt, EGPT, Denmark, EDEN, the US, IWM, Eurozone Small Cap Dividend, DFE, and New Zealand, ENZL, as is seen in the combined ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart.  

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher spoke before the Asia Society in Hong Kong on April 4, 2014, in “Forward Guidance” stating The Fed’s large-scale asset purchases dramatically and more broadly impacted credit markets. The U.S. credit markets are awash in liquidity. As of March 14, our par holdings of fixed-rate MBS exceeded 30% of the outstanding stock of those securities… We now own just shy of 24% of the stock of Treasury coupon securities. Having concentrated our purchases of Treasuries further out on the yield curve, and done so in size, we have driven nominal interest rates across the credit spectrum to lows not seen in over a half century.

This has allowed U.S. businesses to restructure their balance sheets, manage their earnings per share through share buybacks financed with bargain-basement debt issuance, bolster stock prices through enhanced dividend payouts and position themselves for financing growth once they see the whites of the eyes of greater certainty about their economic future. By driving nominal interest rates to half-century lows, we have also reduced the hurdle rate by which future cash flows of publicly traded businesses are discounted. Thus, through financial engineering, we have helped bolster a roaring bull market for equities: The indexes for stocks have nearly tripled from the lows reached in March 2009.

Alongside these signs of rebound have been some developments that give rise to caution. I have spoken of these in recent speeches, echoing concerns I have raised in FOMC discussions: The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of stocks is among the highest decile of reported values since 1881. Bob Shiller’s inflation-adjusted PE ratio reached 26 this week as the Standard & Poor’s 500 hit yet another record high. For context, the measure hit 30 before Black Tuesday in 1929 and reached an all-time high of 44 before the dot-com implosion at the end of 1999… Since bottoming out five years ago, the market capitalization of the U.S. stock market as a percentage of the country’s economic output has more than doubled to 145% — the highest reading since the record was set in March 2000. Margin debt has been setting historic highs for several months running and… now stands at $466 billion. Junk-bond yields have declined below 5.5%, nearing record lows…. In my Federal Reserve District… bankers are reporting that money center banks are lending on terms that are increasingly imprudent.

The former funds manager in me sees these as yellow lights. The central banker in me is reminded of the mandate to safeguard financial stability… At the current reduction in the run rate of accumulation, the exercise known as QE3 will terminate in October (when I project we will hold more than 40% of the MBS market and almost a fourth of outstanding Treasuries)…

Forward guidance can be a complicated monetary policy tool … This is the very best we can offer you … Those who think we can be more specific in stating our intentions and broadcasting our every next move with complete certainty are, in my opinion, clinging to the myth that economics is a hard science and monetary policy a precise scientific procedure rather than the applied best judgment of cool-headed, unemotional decision-makers.”

The ZIRP stimulus was focused upon the investor with the result of establishing the investor, and neither the consumer or the employee, as the centerpiece of economic action.

The Dispensation Economics Manifest presents the concept that Jesus Christ acting in Dispensation, a concept presented by the Apostle Paul in Ephesians 1:10, was to perfect the final economic experience of liberalism, defined as freedom from the state, where the investor was set investor free by democratic nation state policies of investment choice and credit schemes of world central banks to pursue and secure investment gain according to his risk profile in debt trades and in currency carry trades.

That perfection was attained on April 4, 2014, and Jesus Christ is now pivoting the world into the experience of authoritarianism.

And Tim Duty writes The Baseline Case Remains Zero Rates Until The Middle To End Of 2015, followed by a gentle pace of rate hikes. And David Wessel of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook posts an even more radical report The Downward Drift in Real Interest Rates.

The Stockcharts.com chart of the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, $TNX, shows just the opposite of those of the IMF Economist. Zero rates no more; the future is one of an ongoing relentless moderate pace of market place Interest Rate hikes by the bond vigilantes. Whether the Fed raises Interest Rates in the next two years is irrelevant, as the bond vigilantes are in control of interest rates. The chart of the Benchmark Interest Rate, from October 23 to April 4, 2014, is the chart of the century as it rises and falls, and is about to enter an Elliott Wave 3 of 3 Up, meaning the upward onslaught of Interest Rates is about to commence destroying credit as well as wealth, thus pivoting the world from democracy into authoritarianism, and from investment choice to debt servitude.

The see saw destruction of fiat wealth has commenced. The bond vigilantes in calling the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note higher from 2.48% on October 23, 2013, to its current 2.72%, on the failure of trust in the world central banks to stimulate global growth, is in the process of turning all fiat investments lower.  Aggregate Credit, AGG, is trading lower from its early March high communicating the failure of credit. And on April 4, 2014, investors derisked out of debt trades such as the US Small Caps, IWC, and Greece, GREK, and the Regional Banks, KRE, such as HBAN, SIVB, OZRK, EGBN, BBNK, SBNY, FITB, CASH, and National Bank of Greece, NBG, as well as the most global of  investments such as Industrial Producers, FXR, and Transportation, XTN, turning World Stocks, VT, Nation Investment, EFA, Dividends Excluding Financials, DTN, and Energy Production, XOP, lower.

Look for a steepening 10 30 US Sovereign Debt Yield Curve, $TNX:$TYX, which will be reflected in the Steepner ETF, STPP, trading higher; and look for interest rates to continually move higher, from 2.72%, on the ongoing failure of the world central banks’ monetary authority.

This being seen in fulfillment of Revelation 6:1-2, where Jesus Christ opened the first seal of the Scroll of End Time Events, on October 23, 3013, releasing the Rider on the White Horse, who has a bow without any arrows, that is the Bow of Economic Sovereignty, to effect global economic coup d’etat to transfer sovereignty from democratic nation state to sovereign regional leaders and sovereign regional bodies, such as the ECB, by enabling the bond vigilantes to start calling the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, higher from 2.48%.

Rising interest rates and a steepening yield curve will evidence the onset and relentless drive of economic deflation, coming from derisking out of debt trades and deleveraging out of currency carry trades, as World Stocks, VT, Nation Investment, EFA, Global Financials, IXG, and Dividends Excluding Financials, DTN, will be trading lower from their market highs.

Libertarian Robert Wenzel posts the timely video article, The Road To Serfdom At 70. David Gordon discusses Friedrich Hayek’sThe Road to Serfdom at the 2014 Austrian Economics Research Conference in Auburn, Alabama, on March 20, 2014.

Liberalism was the age of freedom from the state, which began with the Reformation in Switzerland and ended with Money Manager Capitalism on Wall Street.

Jesus Christ finished perfected liberalism’s moral hazard based prosperity with the trade lower in World Stocks, VT, Nation Investment, EFA, Dividends Excluding Financials, DTN, and Energy Production, XOP, on April 4, 2014, where the investor, ruled by democracy, has been the centerpiece of economic activity.

Harold Meyerson writes in the WaPo How Capitalism Enriches The Few Rather Than The Many. Indeed, Piketty’s book provides a valuable explanatory context for America’s economic woes. Wages constitute the lowest share of U.S. GDP, and profits the highest, since the end of World War II. And with heightened accumulations of wealth come heightened accumulations of political power, a shift toward plutocracy to which Wednesday’s Supreme Court decision, permitting the wealthy to contribute to as many electoral campaigns as they wish, adds a helpful push.

Through Global ZIRP, the rent on capital, that is the cost of money fell, enabling the wily to garner awesome wealth inequality. This was the work of Jesus Christ perfecting the age of credit, bringing it to completion, much the same way that a ships steward completes the manifest before the captain sets sail.

Now, as is seen in Revelation 13:1-2, Christ has unleashed, the First Horseman of the Apocalypse, who has the Bow Without Any Arrows, that is the Bow of Economic Sovereignty, to effect global coup d etat terminating the sovereignty of choice of democratic nation states and the liberal schemes of the world central banks, where the speculative leveraged community established the seigniorage of fiat money.

Peter Schwarz of WSWS posts France’s new government: A political turning point for Europe. And Mike Mish Shedlock posts Brussels Says No to France Proposal for Deficit Target Leniency. Whether it be in the EU or in the US, it is as Laurence Kotlikoff writes in Macarthur Org Fiscal Sustainability Is The Defining Issue Of Our Time. The US fiscal gap now stands at an estimated $205 trillion, or 10.3 percent of all future US GDP. Closing this gap is imperative, and requires a fiscal adjustment of an immediate and permanent 37 percent reduction in spending (apart from servicing official debt), an immediate and permanent 57 percent increase in all federal taxes, or some combination of the two. The necessary size of this adjustment increases the longer it is put off.

Now, Jesus Christ is developing authoritarianism, where the debt serf, working through austerity establishes his debt servitude, ruled by regional fascism to establish regional security, stability and sustainability.

I relate that John the Revelator wrote of the dream given to him by angels, that being the Revelation of Jesus Christ, which forms the basis of bible prophecy of Revelation 13:1-4; which foretells that out of Club Med, that is Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, sovereign, banking and corporate insolvency, the Beast Regime of regional economic governance will rule in diktat policies in the world’s ten regions and occupy in schemes of totalitarian collectivism in all of mankind’s seven institutions.

Furthermore, through regional framework agreements, the Sovereign will rise to power in the Eurozone, as seen in Revelation 13:5-10. Being most keen and most adept, as is seen in Daniel 8:6-8. he will use his two horns to defeat all adversity; and will be accompanied by the Seignior, that is the monetary high priest who calls all to worship the former, Revelation 13:11-18.

The details of seigniorage will come regional leaders, as they work in regional framework agreements, to establish regional security, stability, and sustainability.  Most certainly, there will be no anarcho-capitalist libertarian economic leaders, that is those who believe in free markets, the non-aggression principle and respect for private property rights, as economic fascism will be replacing crony capitalism, European socialism and Greek socialism. UK Conservative John Redwood bemoans current EU Governance One Law For Everyone, as he reflects on comments 18,965,000 People Know The Euro Is Not Working; soon, libertarianism will be a mirage on the authoritarian desert of the real.

It is most likely that Europe’s New Charlemagne will use German industrial and military power to secure the Ukraine as part of a move to provide natural gas resources for the EU.

It’s as Elaine Meinel Supkis writes Ukraine’s Fake President, Yatseniuk, Is An ‘Economic Kamikaze’ Bombing The Workers. Reuters reports on Kamikaze Economics Ukraine PM says will stick to austerity despite Moscow pressure. He calls himself a ‘kamikaze’ government which is true, he came flying in violently and destroyed an elected government!  The lovely Western Ukraine uprising is now blowing up in their faces.  The leaders of this uprising tried their hardest to start a major war and thus tap into a trillion US dollars but that is now flagging badly due to the reality that Russia’s gas is vital for Europe’s survival. He believes that austerity and cruel crushing rules will fix everything there.  ’A tremendous step forwards,’ like here in the US where our same rulers ended up destroying jobs, crushing workers who have had zero pay hikes versus inflation in 30 years since Reagan and no right to strike. This economic kamikaze expects to shrink the GDP of Ukraine by ‘only 10%’.

Robert Bensh of Oilprice.com writes The Most Profitable Gas in the World. There is only one certainty in Ukraine: The energy sector must and will be transformed, and how long this takes will depend on who ends up in the driver’s seat and how serious they are about becoming a part of Europe and reducing dependence on Russia. But by then, investors will have missed the boat.

The driving factor for any energy investor in Ukraine is the pricing environment. There is nowhere else in Europe, or some would even argue in the world, where you are going to get significant access to resources and potential resources for the price. Gas is selling at $13.66/Mcf, while it costs $4-$5 to produce and operate. That means producers are netting anywhere between $8 and $9/Mcf.

Whether it likes it or not, kicking and screaming, Ukraine will have to transform its energy sector, if it hopes to see promised IMF money. Kiev will have to start selling off assets and making the industry much more transparent.

All the debts of liberalism will be applied to every man, woman and child on planet earth, until all of liberalism’s fiat wealth and fiat money is utterly pulverized into dust as is foretold in bible prophecy of Daniel 7:7.

The era of buy and hold investing, such as that posited by Eddy Elfenbein, is over through finished and done, as the age of world central bank fiat asset inflation is history.

 

Summary

The last bear market began on October 10, 2007 when the DJIA and SPX closed at bull market highs. We have Dow Theory confirmation of the entry of what will be the mother of bear market of all bear markets with both IYT, and IYJ, trading lower simultaneously, as is seen in their ongoing combined Yahoo Finance chart, stemming from the failure of credit as investors lose confidence in the ability of the world central banks to simulate global growth and corporate profitability.

One place the these Inverse Market Vane ETFs, STPP, XVZ, JGBS, GLD, EUO, YCS, OFF, HDGE, SAGG, TYBS, and DNO, in a brokerage account, and use them as collateral for short selling

Yet, an investment demand for gold commenced on the failure of credit. Spot Gold, $GOLD, traded higher to $1,302 taking the Gold ETF, GLD, higher. In the age of economic deflation, although short seller may obtain gains, wealth can be best preserved by investing in and taking possession of gold bullion.

 

In the news

Reuters reports Hillshire To Close 70 Year Old Alabama Plant, Cut 1,100 Jobs  Hillshire, HSH, will close its Florence, Alabama, plant, the site of its breakfast sandwich and breakfast sausage cooking operations, and cut roughly 1,100 jobs by December 30.

Peter Schwarz of WSWS posts France’s New Government: A political turning point for Europe. The appointment of Manuel Valls as France’s prime minister on a pro-austerity, law-and-order platform exemplifies the rightward shift in European politics.

Kumaran Ira of WSWS posts French Government Vows Deep Attacks On The Working Class. Socialist Party officials called for shock therapy against the working class as ministers of the new cabinet of Prime Minister Manuel Valls were named.

Robert Stevens of WSWS posts Greek Parliament Approves New Attacks On Workers.  The latest agreement between the European Union-led troika and the Greek government includes measures to limit the right to strike.

WSJ reports Rubber Prices Plunge on Fears of Thai Selling Spree. Rubber prices are down as much as 6% this week as traders rush to sell on fears the market will become awash in supply

Business Insider reports Ebola Outbreak Could Become An ‘Unprecedented Epidemic’ and also posts The American Farmland Price Boom Is Over

Charles Q. Choi, posts in SPACE.com Moon’s Age And Formation Revealed. Scientists have pinned down the birth date of the moon to within 100 million years of the birth of the solar system, the best timeline yet for the evolution of our planet’s natural satellite. This new discovery about the origin ofthe moon may help solve a mystery about why the moon and the Earth appear virtually identical in makeup, investigators added. Scientists have suggested the moon was formed 4.5 billion years ago by a gigantic collision between a Mars-size object named Theia and Earth, a crash that would have largely melted the Earth. Theoi relates Greek Mythology presents Theia, the Titan goddess of sight (thea) and shining light of the clear blue sky (aithre).

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